Well, it took a while, but I think our weather has finally turned the corner.  For the first time since December, the 7 day forecast DOES NOT have any freezing temperatures.  In fact, we have a few 70’s in the forecast for the upcoming week.  It has been a very cold winter across the Lowcountry and most of the U.S. for that matter.  In fact it was the coldest February since 1980 at the Charleston International Airport.  The average temperature was 45.9 compared to the normal February temperature of 50.7.  Almost 5 degrees colder than normal and in the the winter, that is significant – especially when it comes to that heating bill.  The good news is that we are seeing a change in the overall weather pattern as well.  We may still have a few chilly days heading into April, but the warm days will out number the cold ones.

Have a great Sunday everyone and enjoy the spring preview !!

Brad

Looks like there is some buzz about water temperatures and some new data scientists are working on to help predict hurricane season.  Typically, water temperature and events like El Nino have a big play in the formation of tropical cyclones (hurricanes).  Robert Ehrlich of George Mason University has been looking into two important variables in this equation and has a great insight in this website link:  http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24839/?ref=rss

Right now, water temperatures are cooler than normal and it looks like the upcoming season might be slow to start.  Also a strong El Nino (warming of the Eastern Pacific) is underway and that interrupts vertical motion in tropical thunderstorms, which also keeps the number of hurricanes lower.

Bottom line, we’ll hear a lot about the upcoming hurricane season forecast, but it only takes one.  1992 was a quiet year, but one of the storm was Category Five Hurricane Andrew!  So, once again we talk about being prepared for that one storm that may come calling again here on the South Carolina coast.  We’ll keep you updated on LIVE 5 NEWS, LIVE 5 PLUS (our new channel on digital 5.2, Comcast 212, Time Warner, 811 and Knology 146) LIVE5NEWS.COM and our radio partners 101.7 CHUCK FM, STAR 99.7 FM, 95.9 FM Charleston’s Greatest Hits and WSPO.

I hope you can join us for tonight’s broadcasts starting at 4,5,6,7 & 11.

Well the weather this past weekend really doesn’t get much better.  After a cold and wet winter, finally Mother Nature reminded us why we live here.  Sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60’s.  Of course, just as the weather turned mild, I get a cold and am feeeling a bit “under the weather” this weekend.  A little Nyquil before bed will hopefully get me a good nights sleep. 

Anyway, we stay mild to start the work week, but showers are possible for the morning and evening drive on Monday.  Looks like our taste of spring is going to be just be a tease, because the end of the week looks chilly once again.  The good news is that we are headed towards March and climatologically the normal highs continue to climb.  That first 80 degree day is on the horizon and before you know it we’ll be talking about the pollen and the humidity. 

Have a great week everyone !!

Brad

Wow…how things change in just a few days! I hope that you are all enjoying the clear sky and nice sunshine that we have been having over the past few days. There will be more of the same ahead as we see high pressure remaining in control of our weather into the weekend. Looking around at several of our forecast models this morning all show the same thing….nice and dry. Here is the latest 5 day QPF map from the HPC. The QPF map shows how much rain is expected over the next five days.

HPC 5 Day QPF

You can see some green over the coastal areas of South Carolina but they only add up to around 0.10-0.25″ of rain. That all comes next Monday night into Tuesday. This map is valid from today through mid-day next Tuesday.

So the bottom line is…enjoy the sun and milder temps through Sunday!

Thanks for checking in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well…what else can you say! It was a wild weekend for the Lowcountry and after it was all over and done, we could look back a say that we nailed the forecast. When you start talking snow, especially significant snow for the coast people either pay attention or say you are crazy and believe me, if you saw my email inbox you would get a good example of both! But that being said, most folks took the forecast in stride and took the advice and got off the roads once the snow began to fall. The National Weather Service office here in Charleston put together a great map that shows who got what from ol’ man winter:

Image Courtesy: NWS/Charleston WFO

From what I can tell, everyone in the Live 5 viewing area did get some snow on the ground. I wound up with a tad over 4″ at my home in West Ashley. Thanks to everyone who sent us pictures, videos and storm reports. They really helped us keep up with where the best totals were shaping up. We could not have done it with out all our great viewers! The response we had on our Facebook and Twitter feeds was fantastic. As of this morning we have had more than 1600 pics submitted to our my5@live5news.com photo and video feed. If you still have some cool pics, send them to us. Click the link to the left to log on and send them to us.

Again…from Bill, Brad and I…Thanks for choosing Live 5 to keep you informed as the storm rolled in!

Have a great Monday and get ready for a few showers!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wow….this is one of those days that are very rare here in the Lowcountry. A day where significant snowfall is possible. The entire viewing area is under a WINTER STORM WARNING that continues until 6am Saturday morning. Here is the current watch/warning map from the NWS Charleston. All the counties in pink are under that Winter Storm Warning:

NWS Watches/Warnings (Courtesy: NOAA/NWS)

The radar has shown plenty of rain across the Gulf Coast this morning changing to snow just north of the coast. The area of low pressure that is causing all the wintry mess is gaining strength in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move east toward the Florida coast, cross that state and move back into the Atlantic east of Jacksonville over the next 12 hours. This is the classic storm track and path for a deep south snow storm across South Carolina. The HPC snowfall map this morning paints an interesting picture for us:

HPC Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: HPC/NOAA)

The map highlights areas that will get up to 4″ of snow. The lastest GFS snowfall output paints around 3-6″ on average for the area so we feel fairly confident that most areas will see snowfall.

GFS Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

The questions now surround who gets the most on the ground. With the soil temperatures in the upper 30s, what initially falls will melt but if the snow is coming down hard enough, it will offset the melting rate and begin to stick. Areas along the coast will have the potential to get 1-2″, further inland over the rest of the area we are going with 2-4″ and an area of heavier snow may develop over the I-95 counties where 4-6″ may come down with some heavier amounts. We think right now bridges and overpasses will not be a big problem through the drive home. But, as the temps fall and we see  snow continuing to come down, roads will begin to become covered by mid evening into the overnight. If you have evening travel plans we urge you to be very wary and careful of road conditions.

The snow should begin to taper off by early on Saturday morning after 3-4am. Bridges and roads could be very slick before the sun comes up. Sunshine should help melt most of the snow by Saturday afternoon and it will all be a distant memory.

The last time we had measurable snowfall at the Charleston Airport was January, 25th of 2000! Here are some more past snow totals from the National Weather Service:

...CHARLESTON AIRPORT...
RECORDS GO BACK TO 1938.
HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL.

1. 6.0 INCHES...DECEMBER 23...1989
2. 5.4 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10...1973
3. 3.7 INCHES...DECEMBER 27...1980
4. 2.1 INCHES...DECEMBER 15...1943
5. 2.0 INCHES...MARCH 4...1969
6. 1.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9...1973
7. 1.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 18...1979
8. 1.5 INCHES...DECEMBER 22...1989
9. 1.3 INCHES...MARCH 2...1980
   1.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 22...1968

LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT WAS BACK ON
JANUARY 25...2000. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

We will have updates as they come out here on the blog all day long!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Once again we’re watching the computer models for winter weather here in the Lowcountry. All of the models are coming together for light rain on Friday afternoon changing to a mix of snow by Friday late afternoon, then snow by Friday evening and night.

The reason is that we have a southern stream storm system moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, we have very cold air in place and building in from the north. The combination of the low, wrapping moisture around cold air, and good lift in the atmosphere, equals possible snow for our area.

How much? Tough to tell. Usually the formula is around 8 to 1 or 8 inches of snow for every one inch of rain. This event looks like perhaps a dusting on the coast and some accumulations back inland up to 4 inches. That is just an outlook now looking at the models, and could change to more or less as we move into Friday afternoon.

In 1989, we had 6 to 8 inches of snow on the coast! That was a similar system, but the storm stayed closer to the coast than this one. This one moves very fast east and further south. So, the event will be only Friday afternoon/evening/night and out of here by Saturday morning. Therefore, the amounts will be less than 1989.

A rare event for sure here in South Carolina and tricky to forecast; so stay tuned and remember things can change as the system moves to our south.

I hope you can join us for our broadcasts throughout Friday and Friday night. We’ll keep you updated on TWITTER: LIVE5WEATHER and FACEBOOK: Bill Walsh, Chad Watson and Brad Miller.

Just in from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

GAZ116-118-137-138-SCZ048>051-120415-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0001.100212T1700Z-100213T1100Z/
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEMBROKE...SAVANNAH...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
INLAND FROM THE COAST...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON.

Latest 12z GFS model really cranks out the snow potential for us tomorrow night. Models are coming in colder and wetter which will enhance the chance for accumulating snow for the region. Here is the new snowfall map from the 12Z run of the GFS. This would point to 3-6″ for some if not more!!! Again…not written in stone. Just something to keep an eye on as things unfold.

GFS Snowfall Map

(Image Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

More to come as the fun unfolds….

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Our weekend looks good with a taste of Spring after a long, cold winter so far. Spring doesn’t officially start until March 21st, but El Nino has been keeping us cold and wet. Our long term (2 weeks) models show a slight pattern shift to more ridging in the Southeast which might turn off the rain and chill for a bit.

Spring is severe weather season and we’ll be on alert 24 hours a day should any severe weather head our way. Follow us on TWITTER at: LIVE5WEATHER and on Facebook: Bill Walsh, Brad Miller and Chad Watson. If you have an I-Phone, download our free LIVE 5 app from the app store.

Have a great and safe weekend everyone!

Bill

Whew….what a forecast we have ahead here for the Lowcountry. Its not one that we deal with often but we have a lot of fun and excitement when wintry weather is mentioned around here. Several times each winter season we think “just maybe” it will happen. It takes a lot across the Lowcountry to get snow to fall. Since we are so influenced by the Atlantic, its hard to get good cold air in place while we have moisture overhead. I like to attribute it to baking a cake. You can have all the ingredients but if the oven is just not right, the cake will come out wrong.

So all that being said, the weather situation we have shaping up for Friday PM and Saturday morning is probabally the best snow potential we have had here for several years. Anytime during winter that we see a low pressure area moving off the Florida east coast btween Jacksonville and Cape Caneveral it bears watching, epecially if we have near freezing temperatures in the forecast. For Friday night, we have both. Below is the HPC forecast low track for this southern late week winter storm.

(Image Courtesy: HPC/NOAA)

On this path, the low would deepen (strengthen) as it moves parallel to the East Coast. This track is a bit far to the east for us to see a real humdinger of a snow event but the wrap around moisture to the west of the center is expected to be broad enough to give us at least a chance of getting some of the white stuff. IF the low moves further north than shown above, we may have to change the forecast a good bit. The graphic below is from the morning run of the GFS global model. It shows the 120 hour forecast storm total snowfall with this system:

(Image Courtesy:WxCaster.Com)

If this was to verify it would mean a good snow event for eastern South Carolina all the way to the coast. Some places east of I-95 would wind up with 3-4″ from inland Beaufort County northeast through central Berkeley County. Charleston would see 2-3″ and areas right on the coast east of Hwy. 17 around 0.5-1.0″. So will it actually happen….at this point your guess is just about as good as ours! The thing to remember is that this is all forecast model output…it’s not set in stone, it’s not what we are forecasting…it is only one of many possibilities.

Our best guess this morning is that starting late on Friday afternoon, showers will be around south of the Savannah River. As the low moves to our east it will deepen. This should spread more moisture back into the coastal counties and help keep the showers pushing north into our viewing area. As the moisture moves in cold air will already be in place away from the coast. The cold air should continue to move toward the coast overnight. With the cold air deepening as well, I am going with a changeover from showers during the late evening to light snow by midnight lasting through the sunrise hour. The main limiting factors for calling for any accumulation now is we are not confident on the exact path of the low and the soil and surface temperatures will be warm enough to melt whatever falls at the onset. All this could change, almost hour by hour so stay with us as this all shapes up. I would not be suprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Watch posted by this afternoon or tonight. We are staying in close contact with our good friends at the National Weather Service and will pass along the notes as we get them in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist