Looks like our tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is not going to be able to hold on after all. Yesterday it looked to be on the path to depression or storm status…however this morning it will be lucky if the surface circulation can hang on the next 24 hours.

Courtesy: Weather Underground/wunderground.com

The image above from a morning visible satellite pass shows that the circulation of 92L looks fairly ragged. There is a lot of dry air to the west of the system this is being wrapped into the mid levels. This dry air will disrupt the possible development. The system will also be moving into an area with very high wind shear aloft which will act to further disrupt the spin, leaving 92L most likely a weak tropical wave by Wednesday.

All of our reliable tropical forecast models show no other areas of development over the week ahead. As we approach the end of June into July the season should begin to pick up…however the longer it waits, the better!

Stay cool the best you can in this excessive heat wave we have outside!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

INVEST 92L in the east-central Atlantic Ocean has continued to show increasing signs of development over the past 12 hours and could wind up becoming the first Tropical Depression of the 2010 season either late tonight or on Tuesday. Morning satellite photos from NOAA & the National Hurricane Center show an expansive area of thunderstorms north of what appears to be the loosely defined center. Several satellite passes recently have shown an open circulation but last nights pass did show a closed circulation that was much broader than was found this morning. 92L has finally moved north of the 10° N latitude line and can now start to tap into the rotation of the earth more to help it get some spin. This has started to be seen in the latest pictures as upper level outflow is visible to the north and northwest of the weak center. The disturbance is embedded in very humid air so there is no problem with dry air intrusion or Saharan dust to disrupt it if it does continue to slowly strengthen.

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

92L is in a position that really is not supportive of tropical cyclone development. Since modern development of satellite only one tropical system has developed in this part of the Atlantic and that was back in 1979, when Tropical Storm Ana developed in roughly the same area and tracked into the Lesser Antillies. The bets that this one will become the second eastern Atlantic June system this morning look pretty high, in fact, the National Hurricane Center agrees and they put the risk of development at a high level over 60% in the next 48 hours.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

So what if it does develop? Where does it go and how strong will it get? Looking at the latest guidance there is nothing to turn the storm from moving on to the west-northwest. As it approaches the Caribbean, it will begin to encounter some higher levels of wind shear aloft which could disrupt the strengthening process or even tear the system apart. This is really the only factor to limit intensification. The water in the central Atlantic is exceptionally warm right now. It is not even officially summer, but water temps near 92L are already at or over the peak we saw them reach in mid-season 2009.

Courtesy: SFWMD

The forecast path for 92L, if it develops, looks to be in the general direction of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles. This is all pure speculation at this point and the forecast models above are based on a storm that does develop and survives the increasing wind shear by Wednesday. Either way, I think that this will become a depression by Tuesday late day and should have time to become Tropical Storm Alex. Time will tell as we say in the tropics, because there, expect the unexpected!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Courtesy NOAA/NHC

The first tropical depression of the season may be forming in the eastern Atlantic.  While its not unheard of, this area of the Atlantic usually doesn’t get going until August.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.  We will continue to monitor and let you know as soon as we get more information from the Hurricane Center.

Brad Miller

Live 5 Meteorologist

The heat and humidity are building, indicating that summertime has arrived here in the Lowcountry. Dangerous heat index values are on the map through next week and its the hottest that we have seen since last August so get ready!

Live 5 Extended Forecast

You can see on the 7 Day that the mid 90s will last at least through Tuesday. With dew points in the low 70s, that will drive the humidity very high. All that combines together to create heat index values in the low 100 degree range. As the temps go up and the humidity rises, the toll the heat takes on your body increases exponentially.

Courtesy: National Weather Service

Do what you can to stay cool today and this weekend. Drink plenty of water, take some breaks in the A/C or at least in the shade and mainly, don’t over do it! Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are serious and can strike very easy in this kind of heat to listen to your body and take breaks as you need them.

TROPICS: In the Atlantic Basin, things remain quiet and like days past, all of our tropical forecast models show no development for the next few days so we can sit back and relax and stay cool!

Live 5 Tropical Outlook

Take it easy and we will see you here over the weekend!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wednesday dawns with another quiet view over the beaches into the Atlantic. All the forecast models are quiet:

Live 5 Tropical Outlook

June is shaping up just as climatology would have it, being a very inactive time for tropical weather across the Atlantic Basin. All of our reliable tropical long range models keep things nice and quiet for the next 7-10 days. That may change, but for now, enjoy the calm waters. Take this time to make sure that you are prepared!

Our 2010 Live 5 Hurricane Survival Guides are out and are available across the Lowcountry. Pick one up today at Harris Teeter, SCE&G, Heritage Trust Federal Credit Union and our Live 5 Studios. They are free and have plenty of great information on what to be ready for this hurricane season.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The week starts again on the quiet side as the forecast for the tropics remains calm. The National Hurricane Center is not forecasting any development over the next few days.

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

All of our tropical forecast models still point at a quiet week ahead. This is typical during June, which is usually one of the least active months in the tropics. The longer it stays that way the better!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hope you all have had a great weekend across the Lowcountry….it sure has been a hot one and it looks like this afternoon is going to be just as much of a scorcher!

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

The tropics are all still quiet and we dont expect any development over the next few days so sit back, relax and stay cool as we head into Sunday afternoon. We may see a few strong pop up storms later this afternoon so keep a close eye or ear on the sky and we will let you know if things do develop.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The tropics are quiet and calm on this Friday morning as we end the first week of the 2010 Hurricane Season. The forecast models continue to show no development over the next few days so enjoy the weekend.

Our 2010 Hurricane Survival Guides are out and now available at our Live 5 Studios on Charlie Hall Blvd – West Ashley, SCE&G, all area Harris Teeter stores and Heritage Trust Federal Credit Union branches. They are free so stop in and pick up a few of these important booklets. They are packed with storm tips, evacuation routes and more on what you need to know this year if a storm comes to our coastline.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thursday still shows things nice and quiet in the Tropical Atlantic Basin:

All of our tropical forecast models show that there are no areas to watch for development for the next few days so rest easy as we head into the last day of the week and the upcoming, hot weekend! The Atlantic typically is quiet in June, especially at the start of the season.

Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University updated their 2010 tropical forecast yesterday and it also shows and uptick in the expected storms this season. Here is how their new forecast breaks down:

June 2, 2010 Update:

• 18 Named Storms
• 10 Hurricanes
• 5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

The last update issued earlier this year looked like this:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

They have also increased the percentages and risks of a major hurricane strike on the United States coastline. The new numbers are concerning:

• 76% chance of a land-falling major hurricane along the U.S Gulf & East Coast.
• 51% chance for a major storm strike on the East Coast alone
• 50% chance of a Cat. 3 or higher storm making landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coastline

Click here to read the full report from Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach (PDF Format)

So, as we can see, all the numbers keep going up but we must remind everyone that the overall skill level in long term hurricane forecasting is still prone to large errors as we have seen in years past, just look at 2009. The main thing that these numbers are designed to do is spur you into thinking “am I ready”. We all have to prepare year to year. Whether it is an active season or not, all it takes is just one storm to make it a devastating season here in the Lowcountry.

Be sure and visit our “Hurricane Center” to get the info you need on where to go, what to do and what to expect if a storm heads our way this year.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

As the second day of the 2010 Hurricane Center starts, the Atlantic Basin is all quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and beyond.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha which were just off the east coast of the Yucatan yesterday have fizzled away this morning. Looking across the rest of the waters, we find no other areas to keep an eye on this morning. June typically is a very quiet time in the tropics. Any early season systems that do develop usually develop in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Since the mid 1990′s there have only been a hand full of June Gulf systems. The open Atlantic waters are too cool to support development until late July and August. We always keep an eye on old frontal boundaries that push off the southeast coast in June and early July. They are typically to blame for tropical systems that spin up as they fade away over the northern Gulf and southeast coastal waters.

Looking at our long term forecast models, none of them show signs of any development for at least the next 10 days or so. This is good news, so take the time to get prepared and make sure you have your home or office hurricane kit ready for the upcoming season.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist