What a great weekend across the area.  We saw lots of sunshine and temperatures right where they should be.  However, some big changes are on the way for the start of September.  A cold front will slowly slide across the southeast over the next few days and provide the focus for showers and storms.  At the same time, our temperatures will take a bit of a tumble with highs expected only to be in the 80′s with overnight lows in the 60′s.  Drier weather should overspread the area by midweek.

For the moment, there are no named storms  in the Atlantic basin, but a disturbance just east of the Lesser Antilles bears watching this week.  In fact, most of the models develop this into our next tropical storm as it moves just north Puerto Rico by next weekend.  If it does get a name, it would be Erika.  Nothing to worry about right now, but just something we need to watch especially as we head towards a holiday weekend.  Stay tuned !!

Brad

We’re watching “Danny” develop in the Atlantic and the good news is that it should stay well to our east.  Not a very well organized storm, Danny will be a factor for the mid Atlantic or New England and a weak system at that.

 We’ll keep you updated on all our broadcasts tonight at 4,5,6,7 and 11.

Our FOX-24 show expands to a full hour starting on Monday and we’ll be keeping you posted on the weather every night at 10 as well.

Join us on FACEBOOK and TWITTER for weather updates.

Have a great day!

When Space Shuttle Discovery lifts off of Launch Pad 39B Wednesday morning at 1:10am, most of the East Coast of the United States, weather permitting, should get a good chance to see it.

We will be in prime viewing territory tonight according to the map below from SPACE.com:

(Image Source: SPACE.com)

There are a few more chances to get Discovery off the ground this week incase weather causes another scrub, like it did early on Tuesday morning. When Discovery does get off the pad, it could be the last time ever we see a shuttle blast into the heavens under the cover of darkness. All six of the remaining shuttle missions are either dawn or daylight launches.

The best view will be to the due south…with Discovery rising off the horizon from the lower right roughly T+80 seconds after liftoff. Find a place that is dark and elevated, if possible. You want the horizon ahead of you as clear as can be. The best place to see the show will be from the area beaches.

So, wake the kids up and go outside tonight for one last view of space history from here in our own backyard! Get out the camera and enjoy!

Send your photos to my5@live5news.com so we can put them on the air!

 Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hurricane BILL is once again proof that even during a slow hurricane season; mother nature can produce some big storms!  Bill looks like it will be a major hurricane and only the second named storm this year.

In 1992, we had a very slow season, but the first named storm was ANDREW.  Andrew was a category 5 hurricane when it slammed into South Florida and Louisiana.  Also, 1989 was a rather quiet season with only a few storms, but one was Hurricane HUGO. Hugo was a category 4 which all but leveled the Isle of Palms and caused 5 billion dollars in damage in the Charleston metro area. 

So, the lesson is that with El Nino and a slow season, it only takes one to come calling.  Always have your hurricane plan ready and if a storm strikes, you’ll be ahead of it.  We’ll keep you posted here and on LIVE 5 NEWS and LIVE5NEWS.COM.  Check out the Hurricane Center on our web page too. 

You can sign up for TWITTER updates:  LIVE5WEATHER  as well as FACEBOOK:  Bill Walsh, Chad Watson and Brad Miller.  Also become a fan of LIVE 5 NEWS.

Hope you have a great midweek and join us for tonight’s broadcast at 4,5,6 & 7 during the evening and a fresh new update on the storm and the days news at 11 p.m. before you go to bed.

Bill

After a slow start to the hurricane season, in the last 48 hours the tropics have spawned 3 named storms. The tropics continue to spark up.  Tropical Storm Claudette will be making landfall along the Gulf Coast later tonight as it continues northwest and then will quickly weaken.  Ana however, has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it approaches the northern Caribbean Islands and is forecast to continue west through the islands and will most likely weaken further.  Tropical Storm Bill is located in the central Atlantic and has a good chance to become our first hurricane of the season.  Bill is forecast to eventually turn to the north and then out to sea.  None of the 3 storms are expected to have an impact on our weather.  We’ll continue to monitor as more waves roll off of Africa and could develop once over the Atlantic.  Have a great Monday !!

Brad

The remnants of TD2 and our strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic will dominate our attention over the next week ahead. It sure looks like the Atlantic season has ramped up and will stay active.

(Image Source:NOAA/NHC)

REMNANT LOW/TD2:

The remnant low pressure area that was Tropical Depression Two has redeveloped some thunderstorms around the center of circulation overnight. This could be a sign that the system is trying to regenerate. There is still a chance this may happen and the NHC has bumped the chance back up to a medium threat (30-50%) that it will redevelop. The forecast models still want to move the system to the west, with a northwest bend in 3-4 days as it moves north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Intensity forecast is still marginal, with borderline Sea Surface temps and moderate wind shear aloft. No doubt we will continue to watch the system. If the storms continue to rebuild, advisories may be restarted later this morning or afternoon.

(Image Source: NOAA/NHC)

INVEST 90L:

Our strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde islands is looking much better organized this morning and may be very near Tropical Depression strength. Overnight a large area of thunderstorms developed on the western side of the broad circulation center. The latest QuikSCAT pass did show an broad circulation stretched east to west with some winds near 30 knots. 90L is far enough south over warm water and away from the drier air of the SAL to continue t0 strengthen. Infact almost all the forecast models bring the system to a hurricane in 4-5 days. Several ramp it up to a major hurricane as it passes near Puerto Rico and Hispanola late next week.

(Image Source: Colorado State University)

The big question still that has everyone buzzing is where will this thing go if it does develop? My answer…we dont know! Its still way too early to guess and even with fairly reliable forecast models we just dont have the skill level yet to know this far out. The long range GFS has continued to show some disturbing trends into late next week, developing the system into a powerful hurricane and bringing it toward the U.S. coastline. The solutions have continued to be all over the place, from the Gulf Coast to south Florida to right here in the Lowcountry. So…you see that there is no way to know. The trends are worth watching…for now.

Bottom line is keep an eye on things here as we watch the tropics…Enjoy your weekend. If time permits or things change look for a complete update Saturday morning.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The eastern Atlantic is proving to be the hot spot for activity as the season begins to become active. Tropical Depression Two has been fighting to maintain itself as a minimal depression. As of the 11am advisory, the system looks more like a remnant low than a depression.

(Image Source: NHC/NOAA)

The center of circulation was exposed for most of the night as very few thunderstorms were assoicated with the system. Dry air to the north with the SAL and moderate wind shear aloft have been working together to keep TD2 from gathering any strength. If this trend continues there is a very real chance that the depression may end up as a remnant low or an open wave. The model guidance is in pretty good agreement in keeping TD2 very weak, only the HWRF and a few other models show an increase in strength. The forecast movement is problematic…depening on whether the system stays organized or not. The depression should continue west over the next several days with a general bend to the northwest at the 4 to 5 day timeframe. If the system stays weak, or opens up to a wave, it may not turn at all due to being guided by the low level flow instead of the mid level winds. NHC offical track shifted more to the south at 11am and we agree with this.

I just dont see TD2 really being able to hang on with the infiltration of dry air, increasing shear aloft and marginal sea surface temps. Time will tell…just my two cents.

The next item that grabs our attention is a new wave taht came off Africa yesterday. It has already been tagged as INVEST 90L.

(Image Source: NAVY/NRL)

This is the one that bears watching. Morning QuikSCAT passes did already show a closed surface circulation. Winds were close to 30 knots, but until we see storms contracting and developing near the center, this will stay unclassified. It already has a classic look of a large, broad depression. Once these start to tighten up you can expect it to be upgraded to TD3 or possibly a Tropical Storm. The model guidance is all over the place, since the system is unorganized at this point. All the tropcial models to develop this into a storm and a few bring it to hurricane status in five days or so. The long range GFS runs the past several days have had it making landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast to the Caribbean to the southeast coast of the U.S. around next weekend. The shear is forecast to remain low to moderate and the sea surface temps are expected to be warm enough to allow gradual strengthening over the next five days. Its still way to early to tell if 90L will pose a threat to the US or other areas. We will be watching and waiting and have a full update tomorrow morning and on each broadcast.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Depression Two has held its own over past 12 hours or so, even after looking like it might totally fall apart yesterday. The latest morning visible satellite pics show a nice blow up of convection near the west side of the center with some expanding cirrus outflow noted in the upper levels.

(Image Source: NOAA/NHC)

Wind shear around and ahead of TD2 looks to be fairly light over the next two to three days. I dont see it as enough alone to keep a slow intensification from taking place. Sea surface temperatures are still borderline but TD2 should stay just far enough south over the warmer water to keep that from being a significant factor against growing. The official intensity guidance from the National Hurricane Center does bring TD2 to Tropical Storm strength later today. Infact, the morning QuikSCAT pass did find winds near 40 knots to the west of the circulation center in the mass of developing convection.  After three days the shear aloft may increase some, which could slow any further development. Some of the global models point to significant shear, which would weaken the system. Our thinking is that TD2 becomes Ana later today and maintains itself as a marginal tropical storm over the next 3-4 days. After that, the guidance becomes unclear.

The forecast path is also a bit fuzzy this morning. The depression continues to move westerly, on the southern edge of a mid level ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. The guidance suites this morning continue that general trend over the next 2-3 days before things diverge at the end of the period.

(Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

The 06Z track guidance above from CSU shows the westward movement followed by a more northwestward turn in the 4-5 day timeframe. The HWRF, BAMD & LBAR all recurve the storm into the open Atlantic due to a weakness in the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The remainder of the models are more westward in their bias, keeping the storm to the northeast of the US & British Virgin Islands at 120 hours. The official NHC path splits the middle of them all and keeps the storm well away from the Caribbean Islands.

(Image Source: NOAA/NCEP)

The long range GFS model still wants to try and bring a tropical system near the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast late next week. This is all pure speculation but bears watching and following the trends. Something worth watching at this point but not getting to excited about. There is still a lot of waiting and watching to do.

More to come as the update are issued!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well…finally after 72 days the Atlantic has finally produced it’s first system of the season. Tropical Depression Two developed this morning from the strong topical wave that was southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa.

(Image Source: WeatherUnderground.com)

After losing some of its thunderstorm activity yesterday, TD2 put on a burst of convection overnight near the center of circulation. That increase in storms and the better representation on the morning visible satellite allowed advisories to begin. The winds are estimated at near 30mph. The morning satellite wind estimate was not available but the system is showing some signs of better organization. There is a large area of very dry air just to the north of TD2. This is part of the SAL or the Sarahan Air Layer, which is dry, dusty air that blows off the west coast of Africa, all the way across the Atlantic. The SAL combined with the slightly cooler than perfect sea surface temps will make intensification slow, but not impossible. The winds aloft should not be high enough to impart very much shear on the system so given enough time, there is no reason to think that TD2 will not become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday.

The depression should continue to move just slightly north of due west over the next day or so before the model guidance begins to diverge. The official track from the NHC curves the system more to the northwest after 48hours in response to a weakness in the mid-Atlantic ridge. Other guidance tends to keep the system on a more westerly path. All the guidance steers TD2 to the north of the Windard & Leeward Islands. Its way to early to tell what path the storm may take, but based on climatology, storms this far north when they develop typically are subjet to recurving out to sea. We will follow along with the NHC forecast but watch for any possible long term changes.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two more waves worth noting. One passed through the southern Leeward Islands this morning near St. Lucia and Trinidad & Tobago. It does have a small area of low pressure assoicated with it but is not expected to develop as wind shear over the eastern Caribbean Sea is forecast to increase. Another wave roughly 500 miles east of the Leeward Islands has not shown an increase in thunderstorms this morning. The NHC keeps both disturbances in the low category for developing, less than a 30% chance.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

I thought it was hot here in the 90′s until I landed in Phoenix the week before last and it said 107 degrees on the bank building as we left the airport!  Wow, I thought it was hot in the Lowcountry.  It is, as they say, a “dry” heat, but so is the oven we cook food in! 

My wife and kids have never been to the Grand Canyon and the kids to the west coast; so our family vacation started in Phoenix where we then headed to the amazing vistas that are only found on the South Rim of the Grand Canyon.  It’s about a four hour drive from Phoenix through Flagstaff to the Grand Canyon and one that the kids will not soon forget with temperatures in the triple digits and elevation signs in the thousands of feet.  As we went higher and higher into the Arizona countryside the landscape was breathtaking. 

The thing about the Grand Canyon is that you don’t get a sneak peak or see it coming.  You drive through the woods and desert for around 45 miles off I-40 and enter the national park.  Mainly, you pull up, park and walk a few feet and there it is.  A sight you will never forget as you look across 8 to 10 miles and down over 6000 feet!  It it truly amazing and for first timers, awe inspiring.  I once hiked this grant Grand Canyon with my little brothers, 29 miles down to the Colorado River and Phantom Ranch and literally almost ended up in the hospital because it was such tough terrain.  This time we just looked!

After our Grand Canyon experience we jumped into our stage coach (rental car!) and headed west to the Hoover Dam.  Our son Frank loved the dam and we actually got to go down to the power turbines that supply electricity to much of the Southwest.

Then it was on to Las Vegas and a few nights in the entertainment capitol of the world.  Our kids thought Charleston Place was a big hotel until they experienced the likes of MGM Grand, Venetian, Paris, The Wynn and others.  They also quickly learned that a “Las Vegas mile” is around 6 to 7 regular city blocks and that there is a lot of walking in this town.  One thing not to miss is the Cirque du soleil Beatles LOVE show at the Mirage Hotel.  It truly is one of the best stage shows I’ve ever seen and the music is second to none.  Also the Las Vegas monorail is a big help getting around The Strip from hotel to hotel. 

From Las Vegas we continued to set a westward heading and spent much of the week in Los Angeles visiting friends and showing the kids the sights of Hollywood.  Frank is a fan of Craig Ferguson, who is a friend, and his LATE LATE SHOW; so we sat in on the show in the green room as they worked their TV magic for CBS’s late night.  Amy is a fan of historic animals and the age of dinosaurs; so it was off to the La Bria Tar Pitts.  To be honest, I’ve been to LA many times and have never stopped by this awesome sight where tar and oil come up from below these lakes and fossils from ages ago have been found.  Very neat.  Tough to park.  Imagine that in LA!

One of the funny things we did was visit the fire station used in the 70′s television show “Emergency!”  This is an actual station just off the 405 in Carson, just south of LA.  The guys were wonderful and showed Frank, who still has every episode on DVD, around the station making him and all of us right at home.  I’ll attach a photo and you might recognize the station from the show.

The last two stops on this adventure was LEGOLAND and the San Diego Zoo.  Both worth taking in and wonderful for kids.  Legoland actually has full city models like New York, Washington and Las Vegas built entirely of Legos!

The San Diego Zoo is probably one of the best zoos in the world and once again is well worth the time spent.  One of the most beautiful zoos, it also has some amazing animals like their famous panda exhibit.

Temperatures in Southern California were pretty nice in the lower 80′s with very low humidity and dewpoints.  Bottom line, you could get spoiled by the dry air and bright blue skies.

Our trip ended well as the kids experienced another part of this wonderful nation.  It’s always good though, to fly home and see our trademark double diamond Ravenel Bridge.

I hope you can join us on tonight’s broadcast for a live weather update at 5,6,7 & before you go to bed at 11.