Where do we start this morning! There is a lot of weather ahead for us to watch as we move into Saturday, Sunday and Monday for the Lowcountry and there is something for everyone in the forecast!

First::Severe Weather on Saturday:

(Image courtesy: SPC/NOAA/NWS)

The first order of business is the severe weather potential for Saturday afternoon and evening. The image above is the DAY 2 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center issued this morning. You can see they have us in a slight risk for severe tomorrow. That risk area may be upgraded by tomorrow depending on how well things come together to support storms. Right now it looks like by mid-afternoon on Saturday all the ingredients will be blending enough to allow storms to start to pop. The winds aloft along with forecasted shear look to support rotating storms. The biggest question in my mind right now is instability…will the clouds break enough to let the atmosphere destabilize? The dynamics alone with the system will support severe storms as a cold front moves through late in the night but less instability will help supress the chance for supercells developing ahead of the main line. As of right now, all convective modes of storms are possbile which will keep tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds in play. Make sure your NOAA weather radio is working tomorrow and stay tuned to the forecast by the afternoon to see whats up.

Second::Wintry Weather Developing:

So…as if severe storms are not enough, as the first system moves off the coast early Sunday morning, a deep cold core upper level low pressure system will develop in its wake and move across the Carolinas Sunday morning into Monday. Below is the forecast from the 00Z NAM valid Sunday night:

(Image Courtesy: NOAA/HPC)

This is one of many various model outputs but they are all pointing to the same thing…540 thickness (the freezing line aloft) off the coast here with ample moisture in place along with deepening heights as the upper low moves across the region. This is a classic setup fo some type of snow/wintry mix. The only issue right now is where and how cold. The models suggest very cold air supportive of ample snow growth overhead with the low. The low level moisture fields are heavily populated…combine the two and someone in the state is going to see some white stuff. The peksy part about these cold core systems is forecasting them accurately in advance. A difference in a jog north or south has a big impact on who may see flurries, accumulating snow or nothing at all!

The Real Question:: Will we get snow on the ground?

That one is still way up in the air and I am not even going to make a real guess at it. If you look back at these types of setups before in the south, typically a heavy band of snow does setup where the low moves through the best available moisture. It is usually a narrow band of snow where some places could get a lot and areas not far away don’t even see flurries. The best chance on Sunday for snow on the ground would appear to be (with the 00Z model run package) across the midlands, along I-20 into the upstate with just some light snow along the coast. Some of the other forecasts say 4-6″ all the way to the beaches with up to 10″ along Interstate 95! Is that going to happen…? I don’t count on it. The models are all over the place so we have to look at the overall trends run to run, not on each individual model output. That would drive you nuts.

Bottom Line…stay close to the weather forecast for Saturday regarding severe weather and Sunday for the chance of snow. We will be here all weekend fully staffed in the storm center to keep you ahead of the storm.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thunderstorms on Saturday, Snow on Monday?????

That’s the forecast problem we’re facing here in the Storm Center as we look at each model run.  A vigorous storm system will develop in the Southeast and move slowly across the area over the weekend.  This will bring mild weather on Saturday with the ingredients for possible strong thunderstorms and gusty winds. 

Then, as the upper storm with VERY VERY cold air in the upper levels almost down to the surface strengthens and wraps moisture around it, we could see rain on Sunday with rain changing to snow on Sunday night/Monday morning and all snow on Monday morning with some possible accumulations inland depending on how much precipitable moisture is available and the position of the upper low.

So, these are the days we pull our hair out trying to come up with the best solution.  Right now I’m confident that severe weather is possible Saturday eve/early night as strong dynamics work into the area.  Also feel pretty strong that if the model runs keep this upper low as far south as it’s showing on the latest runs, that there will be enough cold air and moisture for a snow event late Sunday into Monday morning. 

We’ll be watching this unfold carefully and tweaking our forecasts as we see fit.  Stay tuned to LIVE 5 NEWS throughout the weekend for updates and here on the web.

I want to thank the great folks of Northside Elementary School in Walterboro for the wonderful reception.  We had a great time with the 2nd graders and showing off the Storm Tracker.  Also met some fine folks at the Veterans Home in Walterboro and the Pizza Hut!  Great to be in Colleton County again!

Well, time is tight, so we’ll be getting tonight’s broadcast together and hope you can join us this evening and for the late show before you go to bed at 11.

Bill

We wanted to take the time to make a quick note about what we are looking at as we head toward the weekend. As the temps continue to warm across the region today and Friday, it will set the stage for us to push into the upper 70s for Saturday. A developing strong area of Low pressure will move through the region Saturday afternoon and evening and that will help widespread thunderstorms to develop. Some of those storms could be severe with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes all possible. The Storm Prediction Center has already out looked us for a SLIGHT risk of severe on Saturday at three days out….this typically means that we will be upgraded over the next two days as the system becomes better defined.

(Image Courtesy: NOAA/NWS/SPC)

Make sure you stay weather alert this weekend and make alternate plans now if you have outdoor activities on Saturday. Have your NOAA weather radio ready to go with fresh batteries incase you loose power.

We will keep an eye on this storm system and have more updates here and on the air as things change!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

We are in the storm center this afternoon looking forward to our visit to Walterboro with the Storm Tracker on Thursday.  We’ll be visiting a few places in Walterboro including Northside Elementary School.  If you’re in the area, we might just say hi!

Quiet weather day with partly sunny skies and some moderating temperatures.  Look for near 70 on Thursday and lower 70′s on Friday.  Next rain chance on Saturday and Sunday.

I’ve been busy working on some stuff for Severe Weather Awareness Week next week and we hope you can catch some of these important tips and stories on LIVE 5 NEWS and here on the web.

By the way, have you seen our new “Harbor Pilot’s Cam?”  It’s a great new look at the harbor and surrounding areas we are now using on the shows.  Neat view and thanks very much to our friends at the Harbor Pilots Association.

Hopefully we’ll get some good boating weather here over the next few weeks.  Spring comes our way in March and so does the time change.  Remember, it’s the FIRST weekend this year that we spring AHEAD.  I always mix that up!!

 Time to get some fantastic graphics together for you to see in HIGH DEFINITION including your complete 7 day forecast.  I hope you can join us for the evening broadcasts and then back at 11 for a LIVE update with fresh new information before you go to bed.

Bill

It’s been so cold the last few days with lows in the 20′s that I really am excited to see some 70′s back for Friday.  Winter always seems longer than it is here in the Lowcountry because we’re spoiled by such mild weather most of the year.

March starts this weekend and it looks like it might start with a few showers.  As we head into next week, severe weather awareness will be the focus.  We will be talking about what to do before, during and after severe weather events and the warning system in place to keep everyone informed.  I am going to try to do a live broadcast from the National Weather Service office as well.  We’ll let you know what day that will happen.  We’ll also do a special edition of talkback; so you can ask us about storms and hurricanes.

We’re headed to Walterboro on Thursday for a visit to Northside Elementary school with the Storm Tracker and look forward to seeing the students in Colleton County.

Well it’s time to get ready for tonight’s broadcast and I hope you can join us for the early evening shows starting at 4, 5 and 6.  Then at 7 in primetime and back for a live update at 11 before you go to bed.

Have a great day!

Bill

What a wonderful gem we have in the Southeastern Wildlife Expo going on all weekend here in Charleston.  From animal art to the real thing, this is the time for animal lovers and wildlife buffs to enjoy and get together.

We were doing live shots the other night with some amazing animals like a fox, skunk, panther and others.  The panther was around 6 months old and as playful as a house kitten.  His paw was the size of a kitten too!!

Enjoy the wildlife expo this weekend and all that the Lowcountry has to offer.  The weather will be a tad rainy on Saturday and some clouds with a few showers Sunday. 

Join us for our weekend broadcasts at 6 and 11 on LIVE 5 NEWS.

Have a great weekend!

Bill

Not that anyone is complaining, but what happened to winter.  Less than a week ago we were talking about highs near 40 and lows in the teens.  Now we’ve been basking in the 70s since Tuesday.  This is very typical for February as we see wild temperature swings.  Spring is still a month away, but the southerly jet becomes a little more active and will continue to do so as we head into March.  This is one of the main reasons severe weather becomes an issue for parts of the U.S. through May.  Cold arctic air still pushes southward while warm, moist air surges north from the Gulf of Mexico.  While we haven’t seen any severe weather in our area, Oklahoma saw the first deadly tornado of the year on Tuesday.

Our weather should stay quiet through Friday but then some changes into the weekend. Expect clear skies overnight with lows in the 40′s.  Mostly sunny skies on the way for Friday along with mild temperatures.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 60′s.  An area of low pressure will approach the Lowcountry Friday night and bring with it a soggy start to the weekend.  Rain is likely for Saturday with some clearing expected for Sunday.  Highs both days will be in the 60′s.  Presidents Day looks partly cloudy with highs a bit cooler near 60.  Have a great Friday !!

Brad

I don’t know about you but when I left for work this morning I was grabbing the extra overcoat! The one good thing about coming to work at four in the morning is that the coldest part of the day will happen after I am here. The 6-7am hour is typically the coldest time on the thermometer. When I left for work today it was  24° at my house in West Ashley. By 6:30am we were at 19° here at the station! Some of that cold air kept leaking into the studio and even the lights had a hard time keeping us warm. Bill finally had to wave the white flag at 6am and leave the desk as his cold had gotten the best of him. If you were watching this morning I’m sure you know what I was talking about. The good folks over at Dr. Lipke’s office took great care of him though. I was planning to perk him up a cup of piping hot Joe but to my surprise, there were no coffee filters in the building!!! NOOO!

Typically when I leave work I head home, but it never fails, when I try and get warm something gets me back outside. The past several days have been very busy with Charleston County Rescue. Since my promotion up to Captain last month, I always have something to keep me busy. The calls for help have had us out in the cold every day so far this week. We don’t mind though because your life is worth our time. We are finally getting some heaters installed in the vehicle bays of our heaquarters building in North Charleston…that will make those cold overnight calls a bit more bearable!

Bill Walsh is back on the big broadcast later this evening after a trip out of town on Air Force duty. We are glad he is back in the saddle and we hope you plan on tuning in at noon and all evening here on Live 5!

Stay Warm and check the web channel for more on your forecast 24/7!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist