TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...GUSTAV POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 450 MILES
...725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...78.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

________________________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NORTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...62.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

You can tell we are getting close to the peak of hurricane season when the tropical updates take longer to do than the forecast! The big story over the holiday weekend will be what happens with Tropical Storm Gustav down on the Gulf of Mexico coast and then later next week, what eventually happens with Tropical Storm Hanna. Here is where we stand as of post this morning.

T.S. GUSTAV:

(Gustav Satellite – Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

Gustav made it’s way off the western coast of Jamacia this morning according to a VORTEX report from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight investigating the system. The report showed Gustav somewhat ragged internally after its pass over the island. There was an open eyewall and the representation on the radar at flight level was ragged. Does this mean that Gus is in trouble? Not at all. We expected Jamacia to weaken the storm but now there is nothing between Gustav and major hurricane status except warm water and a brush with the Cayman Islands which will not affect the storm at all.

It is interesting to see that Gustav has really grown in size over the past 18-24 hours, almost twice what it was this time yesterday. The storm should continue to get larger as it moves closer to the Gulf and the U.S. Coastline late in the weekend.

(Gustav Forecast Models – Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The forecast models have all shifted eastward again on the 06Z runs for the most part, however some still remain to the west of the official NHC path. The landfall chances are high all the way from the central Texas coast this morning to Panama City, Florida. Most of the models still are pointing dead on at southeastern Louisiana, near New Orleans eastward to the Alabama gulf coast, near Mobile. The NHC forecast does lie on the far western side of the 06Z runs and we may see it nudged back to the east a bit on the 11AM advisory package. Intensity forecasts are our most unreliable area. There is no reason why Gus will not become a major hurricane. The water is the warmest in the Atlantic basin, the upper level shear is very low and a ridge of high pressure aloft will be right on top of the storm. With all this in its favor, the NHC bring Gustav to a Category 3 strength as it crosses the gulf. It must be noted though that both the GFDL and the HWRF, both excellent tropical models, take the storm to Category 4 and 5 from time to time as it approaches landfall early next week. Will all this being said, if the forecast does not shift…evacuations will begin along the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday so plan for this if you have to travel that way or have family and friends over there that are going to need a place to stay.

Raycom Media, our parent company, is based in Montgomery, Alabama and is already planning a massive response to back up our sister stations on the coast in Lake Charles, LA and Biloxi, Mississippi.

T.S. HANNA

(Hanna Satellite Photo – Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More folks along the Atlantic coast and across the Lowcountry are watching Hanna closely as we head into the weekend. The good news is that Hanna is taking her time getting organized and is expected to roam about east of the Bahamas at least through early next week. Upper level shear and some dry air had taken a bit of a toll on the system overnight but there is a lot of convection overall near the center and I do think that as the shear weakens, Hanna will grow and accoring to the latest models, could reach hurricane strength late this weekend and become a major storm by Monday or Tuesday. The steering currents are very weak hear Hanna right now so we expect a general northwest track to continue through Saturday. After that, and area of blocing high pressure will build in to the north. This should push Hanna back to the southwest, into the Eastern Bahamas by Monday. Then nobody knows what happens. There is a general consensus that the steering flow cuts off and Hanna lingers for a few days or drifts west toward the east coast of Florida. It may do this, it may turn north towards us or it may move back out to sea. We just don’t know yet…so we will all have to watch and wait to see what happens.

(Hanna Forecast Models – Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

We will have the latest advisories posted on the blog after the 11am update.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Here is the 8am Intermediate Advisory:

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

…CENTER OF GUSTAV ABOUT TO MOVE WEST OF JAMAICA…

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA…FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST…NEAR THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA…OR ABOUT 100 MILES…160 KM…

WEST-NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 200 MILES…320 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TOMORROW.  ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA THIS MORNING…MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB…29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…18.3 N…78.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008

500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

…HANNA IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME…

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES…400 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR.   A

MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY BUT HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION…21.7 N…62.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008

500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

…GUSTAV NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA HEADING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA…FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES…140 KM…WEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 220 MILES…355 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL LEAVE JAMAICA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY…AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO

12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION…18.1 N…78.1 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Well we’re watching two named storms as most everyone knows by now.  Gustav and Hannah.  Gustav is going to be a problem for the Gulf coast and no factor for our weather.  Hannah is a tougher forecast because of the steering currents in five days and a few factors that will keep it from becoming a major hurricane, at least for now.

Hannah will be drifting near the Bahamas in five days.  After that depends on the upper flow and whether the ridge forces it back towards Cuba or the Florida Straits or even west towards the Florida coast.  Too far to speculate now.  Mainly we’ll watch them both.

Gustav could be a major hurricane and threaten someplace between Texas and the Florida panhandle.  The model consensus is pointing towards the New Orleans area which would be a disaster at the end of a holiday weekend.  Looks like someone along the Gulf will see this storm, but the target is still too wide to narrow down.

We’ll keep you posted on both of these storms on LIVE 5 NEWS and here on the web.

Our weekend weather looks great.  Lots of sunshine and just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm which is typical of this time of the year.  There is a weak trough to our west which may be the focus of a few of those pop-up showers.

Okay, so I went shoe shopping.  Without my wife.  Found two pairs of boat shoes.  She just died when I showed her.  One was a slip on pair and another typical ties.  Both are going back to the store!!!  She said they are just plain ugly and look awful!  Never shop for shoes without your wife or partner.  You’ll end up back at the store looking for the receipt.  She’s going to show a picture of them on her morning radio show web page.  You can listen to 96.9 THE WOLF on the way to work tomorrow and I’m sure the subject will come up!

Getting ready for a big weekend here in the Lowcountry!  Weather looks good, lots to do, football cranking up.  We’ll have your football forecast on tonight’s broadcast along with the complete weather picture and tropical update.  We hope you join us for the early shows and then before you go to bed at 11.

Have a great night!

Bill

Latest 11am advisories from the National Hurricane Center:

WTNT33 KNHC 281441

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BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008

1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2008

…HANNA BECOMES EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON…

AT 1100 AM AST…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES…490 KM…NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…HANNA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION…20.5 N…59.2 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

Well there are two things for sure that will be in the news over the next couple of weeks…Politics and the Tropics and neither look to go away for a good while. We will leave the politics to the news department and hit the ground running with the latest on Gustav and our newest tropical child, Tropical Depression #8.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV:

(NHC Forecast – Gustav | Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Gustav has been making a trek further to the south over the past 12-18 hours and has recently shown a burst of fairly intensive strengthening, going from 50 mph to 70 mph winds in just a few hours. The latest RECON flight is still in the storm and will most likely find data to bring Gustav back to hurricane status by the 11am advisory. The center is not that far off the eastern tip of Jamaica and is going to give that island nation a battering today. The overall thinking on Gustav in the short term has not changed. The storm should move south of Jamaica today and be south of Cuba tomorrow afternoon over very warm water. The intensity and forecast path beyond three days is still what is in question. The official forecast from the NHC lies on the western side of the guidance envelope but the models are still a bit more divergent this morning. Some say west of Louisiana, some say near New Orleans and some are as far east as the Pensacola area. The threat is real now that we are fairly confident of a landfall on the northern Gulf coast but the strength is still the biggest unknown. The NHC keeps the official forecast as a Cat. 3 at landfall but depending on ocean temps, wind shear and other factors, it could be weaker or stronger. To early to tell just yet.

(Model Plots- Gustav – Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M. Visible Image – Gustav – Image Courtesy: NOAA)

We will continue to watch the latest info on Gustav today to see if the strengthening trends continue and will have more here on the blog and on the air.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT:

(NHC Official Forecast – TD8 – Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

Just in time for the early morning wake up call comes Tropical Depression #8 over the tropical Mid-Atlantic. As of 5am, TD8 was looking very well developed on the satellite views and will most likely upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna at the 11am advisory cycle. TD8 has a very well developed low level center of circulation and a developing CDO (Central Dense Overacast) which signals the slow strengthening has begun. All the reliable models keep the system as a tropical storm through Saturday night then bring it to hurriane status as it approaches the eastern Bahamas at the first of next week. We will have to keep an eye on what will become Hanna due to the models forecasting a sharp left turn at the end of the 5 day period in response to high pressure building over the New England states. If this happens, Hanna may track westward in the direction of the upper Bahamas, Florida-Georgia-South Carolina coastlines. Its more than to early to make a guess here but we will watch it daily to see what happens of course. Still would be a good idea this weekend to check your supplies and make sure you have everything you may need.

(Tropical Forecast Models – TD8 – Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

(A.M.Visible Satellite – TD8 – Image Courtesy: NOAA)

The tropics could become even more active with several more waves closer to Africa showing signs of possible development so stay tuned!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Our weather will be pretty nice now that what is left of Fay is moving away to the northeast.  We’ll see some nice weather tonight with only an isolated shower or thunderstorm.  The weekend looks typical August with hazy sunshine and just a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm.  Highs will be back to near 90.

Gustav will continue to grow after killing 11 people so far in Haiti and the Dominican Republic!  This has the potential to be a category III hurricane pointed at perhaps New Orleans, Gulf Port MS or Mobile AL on Sunday.  Labor Day weekend brings thousands of tourists to the Gulf Coast and the timing on this could not be worse.  We will continue to monitor the progress of Gustav and update you on every show and on line.

Weather is pretty quiet compared to the last week or so around these parts.  Had a nice lunch with an Air Force friend who just got a much deserved promotion to Lt. Colonel.  Congrats Lt. Col. (sel) Dan Zubryd one of our great C-17 pilots.

Well, time to get ready for tonight’s show.  We hope you can join us for the evening broadcasts and tune in for an update with the latest information on tomorrow’s weather and Gustav before you go to bed at 11.

Have a great night.

Bill

Good Wednesday Morning. We are feeling the humidity here across the lowcountry thanks to the remaining tropical moisture from Tropical Depression Fay over eastern Tennessee. The heaviest rainfall has been well north of the Charleston area the past day or so which has allowed us to dry out a bit. Nice to see the sunshine again but I did not miss the muggy and hotter afternoons that are on the way back in. You can always get the latest forecast on our main weather page by clicking the weather link in the menu at the top of this webpage.

All our attention over the next few days will be on Gustav. A Hurricane yesterday that weakened overnight to a tropical storm thanks to the high mountains of southwesten Haiti. The latest information that continues to stream into the storm center shows a growing, in fact ominous threat to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast as we come out of the upcoming weekend. Here is the latest…

(Infrared Satellite – T.S. Gustav – Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The latest RECON reports from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters show that the center of Gustav has finally moved back over water this morning. As the center slowly begins to trek west-northwestward, slow strengthening and rebuilding should begin to take place. The very high mountians of southern Haiti and southeast Cuba are very effective at tearing the lower to mid levels of tropical systems apart. There are indicaitons that the internal core of Gustav has been disrupted by its pass over land, but the latest VORTEX report does still show an elongated eye that is open to the southwest.

As the center rebuilds, the upper levels should remain favorable for steady strengthening. There is a low 10-15 knots of wind shear aloft that is forecast to subside over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves westward, in fact an upper level anticyclone (high pressure aloft) is forecast to build in as the storm approaches the waters south of Cuba into the Yucatan Channel. This, combined with some of the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin could be a setup for an extended period of rapid intensificaiton. We will have to see how long it takes Gustav to regain its composure. The shorter the time, the quicker it will grow. We hope that it remains a weaker system but even an interaction with Cuba should not have a lasting effect on the system once it is back over the warmer waters of the Windward Passage.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots – Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast models with Gustav are in a whole different ballgame than what we had with Fay. Gustav is being well represented in the majority of the runs and they are all now beginning to really agree that a Gulf of Mexico hurricane is ahead. The view from the cheap seats this morning would show a major, potentially catastrophic hurricane in the nothern GOM late this weekend into the first days of next week.

GFDL Model – Click To Enlarge

HWRF Model – Click To Enlarge

The GFDL and HWRF show a very tight track from southeast Louisiana to Biloxi, Mississippi with landfall Monday as a Category 3/4. The UKMET is still the furthest left, with a bias towards the upper Texas coast while the NOGAPS and a few others inclding the GFS are further east toward Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. So…the bottom line here is if you have friends and family on the Northern Gulf coast from roughly Apalachacola, Fl west to Galveston, TX they need to be making plans now for a possible strike from a major hurricane. If you have travel plans to the region next week, please stay very intouch with the forecast, because if this trend does verify, I would expect evacuation orders issued over the weekend for parts of the north-central coast from Louisiana to Alabama.

Lets do hope that Gustav weakens or changes paths and takes our friends there out of harms way…however with the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina on Friday, all eyes will be watching another storm that may tear apart what most folks have just gotten put back together.

We are also watching a few more waves that show some signs of development over the central and eastern Atlantic. Several of the forecast models do develop them and move them in the general directon of Bermuda or so. May have to watch them here along the coast but for now…no problems.

We, of course, will be watching and waiting with the latest on Gustav here on the blog and on the air. We hope you join us for the broadcasts throughout the day.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist