The heat and humidity are building, indicating that summertime has arrived here in the Lowcountry. Dangerous heat index values are on the map through next week and its the hottest that we have seen since last August so get ready!

Live 5 Extended Forecast

You can see on the 7 Day that the mid 90s will last at least through Tuesday. With dew points in the low 70s, that will drive the humidity very high. All that combines together to create heat index values in the low 100 degree range. As the temps go up and the humidity rises, the toll the heat takes on your body increases exponentially.

Courtesy: National Weather Service

Do what you can to stay cool today and this weekend. Drink plenty of water, take some breaks in the A/C or at least in the shade and mainly, don’t over do it! Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are serious and can strike very easy in this kind of heat to listen to your body and take breaks as you need them.

TROPICS: In the Atlantic Basin, things remain quiet and like days past, all of our tropical forecast models show no development for the next few days so we can sit back and relax and stay cool!

Live 5 Tropical Outlook

Take it easy and we will see you here over the weekend!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hope you all have had a great weekend across the Lowcountry….it sure has been a hot one and it looks like this afternoon is going to be just as much of a scorcher!

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

The tropics are all still quiet and we dont expect any development over the next few days so sit back, relax and stay cool as we head into Sunday afternoon. We may see a few strong pop up storms later this afternoon so keep a close eye or ear on the sky and we will let you know if things do develop.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well, a little play on words.  You knew it was going to happen.  Not more than a month ago, we were still dealing with highs in the 50′s and lows below freezing.  Just like a snap of your fingers, we change the month and our weather changes just as fast.  It almost seems like we have skipped spring and gone right into summer.  Well, maybe its not that hot, but it sure feels good outside.  In fact, we tied the record high of 86 on Thursday. 

The pattern has done a complete 180 and now all the cold air is locked up in the western U.S. and that has allowed a ridge of high pressure to build across the southeast.  Temperatures have been above normal all week and there isn’t much change in store for next week.

Pollen has also been a factor in our weather lately.  It seems to be everywhere and a few showers would be very timely right now, but unfortunately, it doesn’t look like its going to happen.  That’s it for here at the Mighty 5.  We’ll keep you updated of course when weather happens, but until then have a great Easter Sunday !!  Sunrise by the way is at 7:04 am.

Brad

Well the weather this past weekend really doesn’t get much better.  After a cold and wet winter, finally Mother Nature reminded us why we live here.  Sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60′s.  Of course, just as the weather turned mild, I get a cold and am feeeling a bit “under the weather” this weekend.  A little Nyquil before bed will hopefully get me a good nights sleep. 

Anyway, we stay mild to start the work week, but showers are possible for the morning and evening drive on Monday.  Looks like our taste of spring is going to be just be a tease, because the end of the week looks chilly once again.  The good news is that we are headed towards March and climatologically the normal highs continue to climb.  That first 80 degree day is on the horizon and before you know it we’ll be talking about the pollen and the humidity. 

Have a great week everyone !!

Brad

Wow…how things change in just a few days! I hope that you are all enjoying the clear sky and nice sunshine that we have been having over the past few days. There will be more of the same ahead as we see high pressure remaining in control of our weather into the weekend. Looking around at several of our forecast models this morning all show the same thing….nice and dry. Here is the latest 5 day QPF map from the HPC. The QPF map shows how much rain is expected over the next five days.

HPC 5 Day QPF

You can see some green over the coastal areas of South Carolina but they only add up to around 0.10-0.25″ of rain. That all comes next Monday night into Tuesday. This map is valid from today through mid-day next Tuesday.

So the bottom line is…enjoy the sun and milder temps through Sunday!

Thanks for checking in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Whew….what a forecast we have ahead here for the Lowcountry. Its not one that we deal with often but we have a lot of fun and excitement when wintry weather is mentioned around here. Several times each winter season we think “just maybe” it will happen. It takes a lot across the Lowcountry to get snow to fall. Since we are so influenced by the Atlantic, its hard to get good cold air in place while we have moisture overhead. I like to attribute it to baking a cake. You can have all the ingredients but if the oven is just not right, the cake will come out wrong.

So all that being said, the weather situation we have shaping up for Friday PM and Saturday morning is probabally the best snow potential we have had here for several years. Anytime during winter that we see a low pressure area moving off the Florida east coast btween Jacksonville and Cape Caneveral it bears watching, epecially if we have near freezing temperatures in the forecast. For Friday night, we have both. Below is the HPC forecast low track for this southern late week winter storm.

(Image Courtesy: HPC/NOAA)

On this path, the low would deepen (strengthen) as it moves parallel to the East Coast. This track is a bit far to the east for us to see a real humdinger of a snow event but the wrap around moisture to the west of the center is expected to be broad enough to give us at least a chance of getting some of the white stuff. IF the low moves further north than shown above, we may have to change the forecast a good bit. The graphic below is from the morning run of the GFS global model. It shows the 120 hour forecast storm total snowfall with this system:

(Image Courtesy:WxCaster.Com)

If this was to verify it would mean a good snow event for eastern South Carolina all the way to the coast. Some places east of I-95 would wind up with 3-4″ from inland Beaufort County northeast through central Berkeley County. Charleston would see 2-3″ and areas right on the coast east of Hwy. 17 around 0.5-1.0″. So will it actually happen….at this point your guess is just about as good as ours! The thing to remember is that this is all forecast model output…it’s not set in stone, it’s not what we are forecasting…it is only one of many possibilities.

Our best guess this morning is that starting late on Friday afternoon, showers will be around south of the Savannah River. As the low moves to our east it will deepen. This should spread more moisture back into the coastal counties and help keep the showers pushing north into our viewing area. As the moisture moves in cold air will already be in place away from the coast. The cold air should continue to move toward the coast overnight. With the cold air deepening as well, I am going with a changeover from showers during the late evening to light snow by midnight lasting through the sunrise hour. The main limiting factors for calling for any accumulation now is we are not confident on the exact path of the low and the soil and surface temperatures will be warm enough to melt whatever falls at the onset. All this could change, almost hour by hour so stay with us as this all shapes up. I would not be suprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory or a Winter Storm Watch posted by this afternoon or tonight. We are staying in close contact with our good friends at the National Weather Service and will pass along the notes as we get them in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Latest 12z GFS model really cranks out the snow potential for us tomorrow night. Models are coming in colder and wetter which will enhance the chance for accumulating snow for the region. Here is the new snowfall map from the 12Z run of the GFS. This would point to 3-6″ for some if not more!!! Again…not written in stone. Just something to keep an eye on as things unfold.

GFS Snowfall Map

(Image Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

More to come as the fun unfolds….

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Its has been a while, but temperatures are going to finally return to normal, but it’s going to take a few more days.  The Siberian Express has finally come to a halt and our weather will return to a more normal winter pattern heading into late week.  It doesn’t mean that we won’t see any more cold snaps, but at least we won’t be dealing with temps in the teens for a while.  With the exception of January 1st, the Charleston International Airport has recorded a low temperature below freezing every day this year.  The way it looks right now, this Friday morning will be the first morning that we do not fall below 32 degrees.  That will make it almost 2 weeks straight with morning lows below freezing.  While we have had cold snaps of this magnitude, never for this long.  Funny thing is that we have only tied the record low one morning through this period.  This Arctic intrusion has been widespread and its icy grip has impacted Florida and the orange crop as well.  We will not know for several days how substantial the damage is, but several farmers have already determined that the freezing temps have ruined several acres of citrus fruit.

Beginning Thursday, highs should reach into the 60′s along with lots of sunshine.  Our next rain chance comes on Saturday as an area of low pressure moves up from the Gulf States.  With a deep trough developing in the west, Arctic air will be forced to drain across the Rockies and California.  This will help a ridge develop over the eastern states and allow for temperatures to return to normal next week.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 60 while overnight lows are near 40.  Have a great Monday and smile !!

Brad

The Blizzard of 2009 is now in the books.  Since Friday, 1 to 2 feet of snow fell from North Carolina up the I-95 Corridor into Boston.  Washington, DC received 20 inches, Baltimore 21 inches, Philadelphia 21 inches and over a foot in Central Park.  If you are from the Northeast, snow totals from this storm rivaled the President’s Day storm of 1978 and the Blizzard of 1996.

Luckily, we “escaped” with heavy rain and some gusty winds, although, after this past rain event, this has now become the wettest December on record in downtown Charleston and so far the second wettest December at the Charleston International Airport.  Rainfall so far this month – 9.02 inches at the airport and 9.72 inches downtown.

Thankfully, we’ve got a few dry days ahead of us.  Temperatures will remain on the cool side and there is no rain in the forecast until Christmas Eve.  Highs will approach 60 degrees by Tuesday with overnight lows in the chilly 30′s.  Have a great week and say hi to Santa for me !!

Brad

After a fairly uneventful November, December started out with a bang.  Several tornado watches were in effect on Wednesday night up and down the southeast coast.  While only one tornado was confirmed in Florida, heavy rain fell across the Lowcountry and flooded downtown.  In fact almost 3 inches of rain fell within a 12 hour period.  Another weather system is quickly developing in the eastern Gulf this morning.  This system will move northeast across Florida and rain spread across the area beginning tonight.  Unfortunately, it will linger into Saturday providing us with a wet, cold start to the weekend.

This same weather system will provide parts of Texas and the Gulf states with some wintery weather.  In fact, Houston is expecting 2-4 inches of snow by tomorrow morning.  The upstate of South Carolina may see a few flakes, but not enough to accumulate.  Maybe next time.  By the way, if you are headed down to Tampa, Florida Saturday night for the ACC Championship, the weather looks dry, but cool for kickoff.  Partly cloudy skies are expected down there with temperatures near 50.  Say hi to Kevin Bilodeau if you see him.  He’ll be down there coverning the game for Live 5 Sports.

That’s about it for now.  Cross your fingers and hope for the rain to move out quicker.  Sunday doesn’t look too bad.  The sun will be out, but highs will only be in the upper 50′s.  Have a great weekend everyone !!

Brad