Hurricane Earl continues to strengthen as it moves through the Lesser Antilles this morning and is on it’s way to becoming a Major Hurricane.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

Earl has the classic appearance of a very well developed hurricane with an eye visible every now and then on satellite and microwave imagery. Wind shear has finally relaxed over the northeast quadrant of the storm and it is now showing improving upper level outflow in all regions. Earl has been moving to the west for most of the morning with a slight jog to the north of west in the past few images. The overall track guidance still supports a more northwestward turn on Tuesday as the storm moves around the western edge of the Atlantic sub-tropical high and into a weakness left behind by Danielle. This motion should bring the hurricane to the east of the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The water ahead of Earl is extremely warm and the shear is forecast to be very low so this would support Earl entering a phase of rapid intensification. Current intensity guidance brings Earl to Category 4 status by mid-week. As the hurricane approaches the U.S. coastline on Wednesday and Thursday, a developing trough of low pressure over the central U.S. should begin to exert enough force on Earl to turn it more to the north, keeping it from making a east coast landfall. There are still some questions on how the long term track will play out, as the morning models have shown a continuing trend of moving the track further west with each run. The strength and timing of the trough over the central part of the country will be key as to when and how much Earl turns later in the week. Once the turn occurs, Earl should parallel the mid-Atlantic coast northward to New England.

Large surf and rip currents will be common along the East Coast from Northern Florida to Maine this week. The swells here in the Lowcountry will lead to some beach erosion and dangerous conditions on the coastal waters. Keep an eye on the latest marine forecast and statements.

Now is also a great time to review your hurricane safety plan and make sure you have all the items you need and know what to do in the off chance that Earl makes a move further to the west.

More on the tropics as needed!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thursday still shows things nice and quiet in the Tropical Atlantic Basin:

All of our tropical forecast models show that there are no areas to watch for development for the next few days so rest easy as we head into the last day of the week and the upcoming, hot weekend! The Atlantic typically is quiet in June, especially at the start of the season.

Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University updated their 2010 tropical forecast yesterday and it also shows and uptick in the expected storms this season. Here is how their new forecast breaks down:

June 2, 2010 Update:

• 18 Named Storms
• 10 Hurricanes
• 5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

The last update issued earlier this year looked like this:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

They have also increased the percentages and risks of a major hurricane strike on the United States coastline. The new numbers are concerning:

• 76% chance of a land-falling major hurricane along the U.S Gulf & East Coast.
• 51% chance for a major storm strike on the East Coast alone
• 50% chance of a Cat. 3 or higher storm making landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coastline

Click here to read the full report from Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach (PDF Format)

So, as we can see, all the numbers keep going up but we must remind everyone that the overall skill level in long term hurricane forecasting is still prone to large errors as we have seen in years past, just look at 2009. The main thing that these numbers are designed to do is spur you into thinking “am I ready”. We all have to prepare year to year. Whether it is an active season or not, all it takes is just one storm to make it a devastating season here in the Lowcountry.

Be sure and visit our “Hurricane Center” to get the info you need on where to go, what to do and what to expect if a storm heads our way this year.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hurricane Floyd off the S.C. Coast

Could this be a sight we see from space this hurricane season?

It very well could be if the NOAA predictions for the 2010 season are right. Forecasters there released the numbers for the six months ahead and they look a bit ominous. Here is the breakdown:

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

Looking at the entire Atlantic basin, forecasters say that there is at least a 70% chance of this forecast verifying and if it does it could be one for the record books. NOAA Administrator, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, says, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record. The greater likelihood of storms brings and increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

To read the full season outlook from NOAA, click this link.

Forecasters at Colorado State University have already issued their preliminary forecast for the season and it is close, but somewhat lower than the numbers we see above. Their forecast breaks down below:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

One point to mention is that the CSU forecast was generated before we saw such a drastic decline in the current El Nino. With that feature rapidly weakening, it will allow for a more optimal setting for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin.

We can’t urge you enough to prepare now. Many people are new here to South Carolina’s coast and have never had to endure the aftermath of a hurricane. Most have forgotten how to prepare but one way or the other, we can’t sugar coat these numbers. The more storms we have, the bigger the bulls eye gets on our beaches.

Please….don’t think it won’t ever happen here. Ask those that went through Hugo and prepared for Floyd? It will happen here again, we know that. When is the big question.

You can count on Live 5 Weather to keep you informed, prepared and ready if tropical weather heads our way. Starting next Tuesday, June 1st check this blog every morning for the Tropical Update. We will take a look at whats out in the tropics and what we need to be watching. Add us to your RSS feeds and your daily reading list.

See you on the air at noon!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

***Strong Storms Possible Sunday for the Lowcountry***

Clouds are moving across the Lowcountry this Saturday morning and some light showers are already showing up on the radar. I expect most of the day to stay dry but a few heavier showers or a storm or two may pop along the I-95 corridor by this afternoon. Highs today are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will also pick up today out of the southwest and will be gusty at times. There will be a large severe weather outbreak to our west today over the Tennessee Valley. The latest updated from the Storm Prediction Center have posted a rare and dangerous High Risk of severe storms and tornadoes over Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

There is the real threat of damaging, long-track tornadoes over much of that area today. It will be a day for folks there to stay very weather alert. The storms that develop there during the day will approach our area as we head into the night tonight and tomorrow.The forecast gets tricky late tonight as a strong storm system moves out of the Gulf States into our region. Thunderstorms could be developing by early Sunday morning and last through the day. All the factors are in place for some severe storms by mid-morning Sunday into the night. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are all possible. Highs will be near 80 and it will be breezy. The SPC has already issued a Slight Risk area for us tomorrow that may need to be upgraded as more data is fed into the forecast.

Make sure you are weather alert tonight and Sunday. Stay close to us here on TV and have a NOAA Weather Radio to get instant watches and warnings as they are issued.

Brad Miller will have the latest forecast this afternoon and evening on Live 5 News and we will post updates here as needed.

You can now get your forecast and more on your time. Watch our news re-broadcast and Live SuperDoppler HD on our new channel…Live 5 PLUS! You can find it on Comcast Channel 212, Knology Channel 146, Time Warner Channel 111, your HOME Telephone Cable listing and over the air using your antenna at channel 5.2 on your HDTV tuner.

Follow us on Twitter at : LIVE5WEATHER & on Facebook at: LIVE 5 NEWS

CHAD WATSON
Live 5 Meteorologist

Friday weather for us here in the Lowcountry really looks great. Sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s!!! You can’t beat that at all. That good weather will last into Saturday as well but will change by Sunday as storms roll in from the west. A major severe weather event is shaping up for the southeast today and tomorrow with a large tornado outbreak expected.

Here are the outlook maps for today through Sunday:

The major threat today and tomorrow will remain to our west, across the deep south states. This type of pattern supports all the key signals that support a major tornado event. Some of them will most likely be strong and long track that could do some major damage. The threat will shift east over the next few days and will approach the South Carolina coast by Sunday. The good news is that I don’t think right now we will see a major severe weather event here in our backyard. The line of storms should be moving through the region around mid-day to early afternoon Sunday. Right now the main threat looks to be damaging winds and some large hail. We cant rule out a few isolated tornadoes so it does bear watching.

To read the latest on the severe weather threat to our west check out the Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov

Enjoy your Friday and Saturday but just check in from time to time to make sure you are ready for what may come our way on Sunday. We will watch it for you.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thursday could not look any better for us across the Lowcountry!

TODAY: Lots of sunshine is on the way for the region thanks to a big ridge of warm high pressure moving in from the west. There may be a few high clouds around from time to time but it should not keep us from getting full sunshine. Highs today will have no problem getting back into the low 80′s. Humidity and dew points stay low so it will feel like perfect spring!

TONIGHT: Clear and calm condition will prevail again as lows fall back into the low 50s. Winds will be light out of the west from time to time. Morning time on Friday looks fantastic!

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: More sun, with a few clouds will return on Friday as highs again reach the lower 80s. We will also see a few more clouds late in the day. For Saturday, changing weather to our west will signal things to come for our neck of the woods. It will be another very warm day with highs in the mid 80s and a southwest wind. That will bring more moisture back into place which will set the stage for showers late in the evening.

SUNDAY STORMS: It looks like right now that a major severe weather outbreak will be unfolding over the deep south Saturday into Sunday. There is a chance that some strong tornadoes could develop over Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon and evening. Those storms will move toward the Atlantic coast on Sunday and it remains to be seen if they will still pose a severe weather threat for us on Sunday. We are watching it closely and will keep you up to date as things change.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Here we are about a month into spring and its hard to believe that we could use some rain.  Outside of the showers and storms from last Thursday, we haven’t had a good soaking rain since the middle of March.  We are still about 2 and a half inches above normal in the rain gauge for the year, but a good day of rain wouldn’t be a bad thing at this point. 

The overall weather pattern has changed significantly since the winter.  We had a very active southern branch of the jet stream from about Christmas until the middle of March.  This kept a parade of storms tracking across the southeast just about every 3 or 4 days.  Now the active weather is confined to the west and the eastern half of the U.S. has been dry and mild. 

Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like any kind of change to this pattern for at least the next week.  That means mostly sunny days with temps in the 70′s and nights in the 50′s.  Big weekend on the way for the Lowcountry, so this good weather is in good timing.  Women’s professional tennis is at the Family Circle Cup at Daniel Island, the PGA is playing the Verizon Heritage Tournament at Harbour Town in Hilton Head, the Grits Festival is in St. George, and the Blue Angels will be flying around the Charleston Harbor. 

Hopefully we can get a few showers in here next week to get rid of the pollen.  Have a great weekend everyone and don’t forget the sunscreen !!

Brad

Well, it took a while, but I think our weather has finally turned the corner.  For the first time since December, the 7 day forecast DOES NOT have any freezing temperatures.  In fact, we have a few 70′s in the forecast for the upcoming week.  It has been a very cold winter across the Lowcountry and most of the U.S. for that matter.  In fact it was the coldest February since 1980 at the Charleston International Airport.  The average temperature was 45.9 compared to the normal February temperature of 50.7.  Almost 5 degrees colder than normal and in the the winter, that is significant – especially when it comes to that heating bill.  The good news is that we are seeing a change in the overall weather pattern as well.  We may still have a few chilly days heading into April, but the warm days will out number the cold ones.

Have a great Sunday everyone and enjoy the spring preview !!

Brad

Looks like there is some buzz about water temperatures and some new data scientists are working on to help predict hurricane season.  Typically, water temperature and events like El Nino have a big play in the formation of tropical cyclones (hurricanes).  Robert Ehrlich of George Mason University has been looking into two important variables in this equation and has a great insight in this website link:  http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24839/?ref=rss

Right now, water temperatures are cooler than normal and it looks like the upcoming season might be slow to start.  Also a strong El Nino (warming of the Eastern Pacific) is underway and that interrupts vertical motion in tropical thunderstorms, which also keeps the number of hurricanes lower.

Bottom line, we’ll hear a lot about the upcoming hurricane season forecast, but it only takes one.  1992 was a quiet year, but one of the storm was Category Five Hurricane Andrew!  So, once again we talk about being prepared for that one storm that may come calling again here on the South Carolina coast.  We’ll keep you updated on LIVE 5 NEWS, LIVE 5 PLUS (our new channel on digital 5.2, Comcast 212, Time Warner, 811 and Knology 146) LIVE5NEWS.COM and our radio partners 101.7 CHUCK FM, STAR 99.7 FM, 95.9 FM Charleston’s Greatest Hits and WSPO.

I hope you can join us for tonight’s broadcasts starting at 4,5,6,7 & 11.

Our weekend looks good with a taste of Spring after a long, cold winter so far. Spring doesn’t officially start until March 21st, but El Nino has been keeping us cold and wet. Our long term (2 weeks) models show a slight pattern shift to more ridging in the Southeast which might turn off the rain and chill for a bit.

Spring is severe weather season and we’ll be on alert 24 hours a day should any severe weather head our way. Follow us on TWITTER at: LIVE5WEATHER and on Facebook: Bill Walsh, Brad Miller and Chad Watson. If you have an I-Phone, download our free LIVE 5 app from the app store.

Have a great and safe weekend everyone!

Bill