Hurricane Earl continues to strengthen as it moves through the Lesser Antilles this morning and is on it’s way to becoming a Major Hurricane.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

Earl has the classic appearance of a very well developed hurricane with an eye visible every now and then on satellite and microwave imagery. Wind shear has finally relaxed over the northeast quadrant of the storm and it is now showing improving upper level outflow in all regions. Earl has been moving to the west for most of the morning with a slight jog to the north of west in the past few images. The overall track guidance still supports a more northwestward turn on Tuesday as the storm moves around the western edge of the Atlantic sub-tropical high and into a weakness left behind by Danielle. This motion should bring the hurricane to the east of the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The water ahead of Earl is extremely warm and the shear is forecast to be very low so this would support Earl entering a phase of rapid intensification. Current intensity guidance brings Earl to Category 4 status by mid-week. As the hurricane approaches the U.S. coastline on Wednesday and Thursday, a developing trough of low pressure over the central U.S. should begin to exert enough force on Earl to turn it more to the north, keeping it from making a east coast landfall. There are still some questions on how the long term track will play out, as the morning models have shown a continuing trend of moving the track further west with each run. The strength and timing of the trough over the central part of the country will be key as to when and how much Earl turns later in the week. Once the turn occurs, Earl should parallel the mid-Atlantic coast northward to New England.

Large surf and rip currents will be common along the East Coast from Northern Florida to Maine this week. The swells here in the Lowcountry will lead to some beach erosion and dangerous conditions on the coastal waters. Keep an eye on the latest marine forecast and statements.

Now is also a great time to review your hurricane safety plan and make sure you have all the items you need and know what to do in the off chance that Earl makes a move further to the west.

More on the tropics as needed!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Looks like the tropics are fixing to make the turn toward the more active side. We have been watching a tropical wave just to the east of the Dominican Republic near Puerto Rico. The past few days has seen this wave become much better developed and this morning, the National Hurricane Center has given the wave a high chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next day or so.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

The disturbance, labeled 97L by the NHC, has been showing slow signs of development over the past 48 hours or so. This morning, much of the thunderstorm activity has decreased, which is typical of the day/night cycle associated with tropical weather. Satellite and radar images have not shown a developing low level circulation as of yet, but the upper level conditions are becoming more favorable. Wind shear aloft has fallen to around 10-15 knots and there is plenty of moisture right around 97L. One factor that may slow development is some dry air to the northwest of the wave, over the Bahamas. This could slow the intensification of the disturbance but should not be enough to keep it from developing. I expect that 97L will become a depression over the next day or so if the current trends continue.

Courtesy: SFWMD

The latest model runs are all in pretty good agreement, taking 97L to the northwest through the southern Bahamas toward southern Florida then into the NE Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend. I see no reason to change this. The steering flow aloft is pretty stright forward, around the western edge of the Atlantic subtropical ridge of high pressure. This should steer the system well to our south and keep it away from the South Carolina coastline. As far as intensity, if 97L can get organized and overcome the dry air ahead of it, I see no reason why it should not become Tropical Storm Bonnie by the time it reaches Florida in a few days. The dry air should be enough to keep it from becoming a hurricane before reaching the U.S.. But that being said, anything can happen and we will be watching it closely.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

All of us here in the StormCenter hope you have had a great Independence Day weekend and as we wrap it up today, the weather here at home stays great! The weather in the tropics this time of the year always bears watching and that’s what we are doing as a few areas of disturbed weather have developed.

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

The map above is the 2am update from the National Hurricane Center. There are four areas that we have our eyes on. There is a weak low just off the Louisiana coastline that has lost most of it’s thunderstorms. As it drifts toward the coast, it is not expected to develop.

A cluster of storms developed on Sunday east of the Bahamas as well as the Lesser Antilles. Both of these areas have a small chance of development. The area of storms east of the Leeward Islands has the better chance as it heads toward the eastern Caribbean Sea.

The area that bears the most watching is in the western Caribbean. The map above shows that the NHC says this area has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system in the next 48 hours. The various forecast models we use push this disturbance into the southwest Gulf of Mexico and bring it to tropical storm strength. We will get better data on this area later today and have more on it later. Either way, it would not be a problem for the South Carolina coastline.

We will be watching the tropics closely…check back often!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Nice and mild weather has arrived so get out and enjoy the relaxing weather that Mother Nature has brought us for the Holiday Weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s are a rare luxury in the Lowcountry for July.

We will be taking a break from the blog until Monday as there is no expected tropical development for the next few days. Some of the models say we may have to watch the northern Gulf of Mexico and the waters off our coastline next week but we will deal with that then.

Until Monday, from the Live 5 family to yours, have a great Independence Day weekend and stay safe!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The 11am advisory package is in and Alex is looking very well developed as it heads toward the Mexico coastline, south of Brownsville, Texas. In the past few hours the pressure has dropped another 2mb but the surface winds have not increased as of yet, holding steady at 80mph.

Courtesy: Weather Underground

The latest satellite picture above shows a developing small eye at the center of Alex. There are numerous complete spiral bands feeding into the center and the upper level outflow pattern is also better established. On the radar the eye is becoming more visible, albeit small measuring only about 10 miles across. If Alex was further out to sea and had another day over the warm Gulf waters, it would have no problem growing into a major hurricane. All the factors favor intensification. High pressure aloft, low wind shear, very warm water and no dry air surrounding the system. The only barrier is time and land. Alex should make landfall tonight or early tomorrow morning as a borderline Cat1/2 hurricane but the wind and surge impacts will be far reaching, especially over southern Texas.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

The plot above shows the areas that will have at least a 5% or greater risk of tropical storm force winds. You can see that over half of the Texas coast may feel gusts over 39mph if not higher toward the Mexico border. Alex is a large storm with a small core. Typically in these type storms as the eye “recycles” the storm’s wind energy spreads out. This may wind up lessening the wind threat for south Texas but increasing the storm surge threat. Places south of Baffin Bay could see a storm surge up to eight feet with an average around 5 feet.

Elsewhere in the tropics, our models do not show much development. The NOGAPS still tries to develop a disturbance in the western Caribbean a few days from now. A few others have also hinted at the chance of something trying to develop around and east of the Bahamas late in the forecast period. All pure speculation and model mayhem right now but we will keep a watch on it for sure.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hurricane Alex is looking like a much better developed tropical cyclone this morning as it continues to strengthen. It has been moving west over the past several hours and is on target for a landfall in northern Mexico.

Courtesy: NOAA

Here is a look at the forecast path for the next three days. It should stay south of the Rio Grande and the U.S. border but the heavy rain and wind will spread over all of the south Texas coastline.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

I will have a closer look at Alex and other parts of the tropics a bit later this morning.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Alex survived its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and is back out over warm Gulf of Mexico water this morning.

Courtesy: Weather Underground

The storm has been moving steadily toward the northwest over the past 6-12 hours and should continue on that track for the next few days. Alex shows the signs on the satellite pictures of slowly getting better developed. There are spiral bands now visible in all quadrants and the deep thunderstorm activity near the center has been maintaining intensity. There is some slightly drier air and upper level wind shear to the northwest of the storm that is keeping it somewhat less developed but it’s not enough to disrupt the long term forecast which calls for Alex to become a hurricane.

Speaking of the forecast…the morning model runs have shifted a bit to the north in the short term and to the right in the extended period. This shift will bring more of a threat to the south Texas beaches and coastal areas. The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches from Baffin Bay, Texas south to the US/Mexico border. The guidance below shows the considerable spread in the models, but a overall northward shift toward south Texas which looks plausable.

Courtesy: Colorado State University

The intensity forecast is also a bit under question but looking at the overall upper air setup favoring slow intensification, I see Alex reaching hurricane status most likely on Tuesday. The water in the western Gulf is a bit cooler under the storm now but is plenty warm for moderate strengthening. The overall pattern does support the NHC forecast of Alex reaching Category 2 status before making landfall either late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Courtesy: Colorado State University

You can see that the official forecast above (the RED line – OFCL) takes Alex to the upper limits of a CAT 2 storm at the 60 hour point, as does the SHIP & LGEM models. All the others keep the storm as a strong Tropical Storm or CAT 1 hurricane. If this forecast verifies, Alex will strike the coast as a Category 2 storm.

The storm will not directly impact the oil spill areas in the northern Gulf but it will send large swells and waves toward the beaches of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Sure looks like 93L is on its way to becoming our first official tropical system of the 2010 season. The morning satellite pics show a marked increase in thunderstorms around a new surface low pressure center a few hundred miles to the northeast of the Honduras coastline.

COURTESY: Weather Underground

There is some better definition in the cloud pattern associated with 93L. Upper level wind shear is still around 10-15 knots but is forecast to weaken over the next few days as the system moves to the northwest toward the Yucatan peninsula. The water is warm and with all the conditions supporting strengthening, the National Hurricane Center now says there is a high chance (70%) that 93L reaches depression strength in the next 48 hours. The Hurricane Hunters are already in the air on the way to investigate the system to see if in fact a depression if forming.

COURTESY: SFWMD

The forecast guidance still calls for the system to move to the northwest over the next few days. By Sunday, the depression (or storm) should be near the Yucatan channel. If it moves over land it will disrupt the circulation somewhat but once it is back over the open waters of the Gulf, it should begin to regain strength. Some of the forecast models take the system north, then northeast into the oil spill region over the northern Gulf of Mexico with a landfall sometime mid to late next week in the Florida panhandle. Other models take it west toward Texas and northern Mexico after entering the Gulf.

I will have more this afternoon if the Hurricane Hunters do find we have a depression…

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

A quick update this morning shows that 93L has not gotten better organized overnight.

Courtesy: Weather Underground

There has been some increase in overnight thunderstorms south of the western tip of Haiti but still no signs of a circulation at the surface. This morning the National Hurricane Center has downgraded the chance of development from 40% to 20%.

I will have a full post on 93L and the rest of the tropics by late morning so check back in a bit!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

I am back from a few needed days off and just on cue, we have a new disturbance in the tropics on the maps that may well become the first tropical depression of the year. INVEST 93L as the hurricane center is calling it looks fairly healthy on morning satellite pictures. The disturbance lost a lot of its overnight thunderstorms, as tropical waves typically do, but they should redevelop this afternoon and evening. The disturbance is moving west less than ten miles per hour and is under an area of fairly weak wind shear.

Courtesy: Weather Underground

The image above shows that the largest concentration of storms is on the northeast side of the disturbance near the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. The one thing that 93L has been lacking is a developing circulation. Our satellite readings indicate that there has been some slow turning in the mid levels of the storm around 5-7000 feet but not enough yet to allow 93L to hold on to most of its thunderstorms. The morning images though do show more banding features on the western and southern side of the disturbance, a hint that it may be getting somewhat more organized.

So where does it go and what will it become?

Courtesy: SFWMD

Courtesy: Colorado State University

The forecast models are all a bit split on 93L this morning. Some show development, others do not. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. That looks probable and I expect us to have a depression out of this by the Wednesday afternoon forecast cycle, if the wave can develop a circulation. From there, the models play here there and everywhere as you can see in the spaghetti plot above. The GFDL takes the storm to hurricane status and into the central Gulf of Mexico early next week but this is an outlier. Most of the model suites including the NOGAPS, UKMET and GFS all show no development of 93L. The European model does strengthen the disturbance once it makes its way closer to the western Caribbean. So whats the best guess this morning? I see no reason for 93L not to make it to depression status in the next day or so. From there, it is a bit fuzzy. The shear aloft is forecast to say low over the next 5 days or so in the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If the storm does strengthen and get better organized I can see it being a threat to some part of the Gulf of Mexico coastline. Will it be a hurricane or tropical storm? I am not sure there. It depends on how organized the circulation can get in the next few days as it heads toward the Yucatan Straits.

This one does bear watching for the Gulf states. It’s no real threat to the South Carolina coast but any gulf storms this time of year can bring us rain and winds after a landfall so we will keep you updated daily here on the blog.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Latest 12z GFS model really cranks out the snow potential for us tomorrow night. Models are coming in colder and wetter which will enhance the chance for accumulating snow for the region. Here is the new snowfall map from the 12Z run of the GFS. This would point to 3-6″ for some if not more!!! Again…not written in stone. Just something to keep an eye on as things unfold.

GFS Snowfall Map

(Image Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

More to come as the fun unfolds….

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Just in from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

GAZ116-118-137-138-SCZ048>051-120415-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0001.100212T1700Z-100213T1100Z/
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEMBROKE...SAVANNAH...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
INLAND FROM THE COAST...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON.

Once again we’re watching the computer models for winter weather here in the Lowcountry. All of the models are coming together for light rain on Friday afternoon changing to a mix of snow by Friday late afternoon, then snow by Friday evening and night.

The reason is that we have a southern stream storm system moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, we have very cold air in place and building in from the north. The combination of the low, wrapping moisture around cold air, and good lift in the atmosphere, equals possible snow for our area.

How much? Tough to tell. Usually the formula is around 8 to 1 or 8 inches of snow for every one inch of rain. This event looks like perhaps a dusting on the coast and some accumulations back inland up to 4 inches. That is just an outlook now looking at the models, and could change to more or less as we move into Friday afternoon.

In 1989, we had 6 to 8 inches of snow on the coast! That was a similar system, but the storm stayed closer to the coast than this one. This one moves very fast east and further south. So, the event will be only Friday afternoon/evening/night and out of here by Saturday morning. Therefore, the amounts will be less than 1989.

A rare event for sure here in South Carolina and tricky to forecast; so stay tuned and remember things can change as the system moves to our south.

I hope you can join us for our broadcasts throughout Friday and Friday night. We’ll keep you updated on TWITTER: LIVE5WEATHER and FACEBOOK: Bill Walsh, Chad Watson and Brad Miller.

Wow….this is one of those days that are very rare here in the Lowcountry. A day where significant snowfall is possible. The entire viewing area is under a WINTER STORM WARNING that continues until 6am Saturday morning. Here is the current watch/warning map from the NWS Charleston. All the counties in pink are under that Winter Storm Warning:

NWS Watches/Warnings (Courtesy: NOAA/NWS)

The radar has shown plenty of rain across the Gulf Coast this morning changing to snow just north of the coast. The area of low pressure that is causing all the wintry mess is gaining strength in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move east toward the Florida coast, cross that state and move back into the Atlantic east of Jacksonville over the next 12 hours. This is the classic storm track and path for a deep south snow storm across South Carolina. The HPC snowfall map this morning paints an interesting picture for us:

HPC Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: HPC/NOAA)

The map highlights areas that will get up to 4″ of snow. The lastest GFS snowfall output paints around 3-6″ on average for the area so we feel fairly confident that most areas will see snowfall.

GFS Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

The questions now surround who gets the most on the ground. With the soil temperatures in the upper 30s, what initially falls will melt but if the snow is coming down hard enough, it will offset the melting rate and begin to stick. Areas along the coast will have the potential to get 1-2″, further inland over the rest of the area we are going with 2-4″ and an area of heavier snow may develop over the I-95 counties where 4-6″ may come down with some heavier amounts. We think right now bridges and overpasses will not be a big problem through the drive home. But, as the temps fall and we see  snow continuing to come down, roads will begin to become covered by mid evening into the overnight. If you have evening travel plans we urge you to be very wary and careful of road conditions.

The snow should begin to taper off by early on Saturday morning after 3-4am. Bridges and roads could be very slick before the sun comes up. Sunshine should help melt most of the snow by Saturday afternoon and it will all be a distant memory.

The last time we had measurable snowfall at the Charleston Airport was January, 25th of 2000! Here are some more past snow totals from the National Weather Service:

...CHARLESTON AIRPORT...
RECORDS GO BACK TO 1938.
HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL.

1. 6.0 INCHES...DECEMBER 23...1989
2. 5.4 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10...1973
3. 3.7 INCHES...DECEMBER 27...1980
4. 2.1 INCHES...DECEMBER 15...1943
5. 2.0 INCHES...MARCH 4...1969
6. 1.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9...1973
7. 1.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 18...1979
8. 1.5 INCHES...DECEMBER 22...1989
9. 1.3 INCHES...MARCH 2...1980
   1.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 22...1968

LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT WAS BACK ON
JANUARY 25...2000. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

We will have updates as they come out here on the blog all day long!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well…what else can you say! It was a wild weekend for the Lowcountry and after it was all over and done, we could look back a say that we nailed the forecast. When you start talking snow, especially significant snow for the coast people either pay attention or say you are crazy and believe me, if you saw my email inbox you would get a good example of both! But that being said, most folks took the forecast in stride and took the advice and got off the roads once the snow began to fall. The National Weather Service office here in Charleston put together a great map that shows who got what from ol’ man winter:

Image Courtesy: NWS/Charleston WFO

From what I can tell, everyone in the Live 5 viewing area did get some snow on the ground. I wound up with a tad over 4″ at my home in West Ashley. Thanks to everyone who sent us pictures, videos and storm reports. They really helped us keep up with where the best totals were shaping up. We could not have done it with out all our great viewers! The response we had on our Facebook and Twitter feeds was fantastic. As of this morning we have had more than 1600 pics submitted to our my5@live5news.com photo and video feed. If you still have some cool pics, send them to us. Click the link to the left to log on and send them to us.

Again…from Bill, Brad and I…Thanks for choosing Live 5 to keep you informed as the storm rolled in!

Have a great Monday and get ready for a few showers!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wow…how things change in just a few days! I hope that you are all enjoying the clear sky and nice sunshine that we have been having over the past few days. There will be more of the same ahead as we see high pressure remaining in control of our weather into the weekend. Looking around at several of our forecast models this morning all show the same thing….nice and dry. Here is the latest 5 day QPF map from the HPC. The QPF map shows how much rain is expected over the next five days.

HPC 5 Day QPF

You can see some green over the coastal areas of South Carolina but they only add up to around 0.10-0.25″ of rain. That all comes next Monday night into Tuesday. This map is valid from today through mid-day next Tuesday.

So the bottom line is…enjoy the sun and milder temps through Sunday!

Thanks for checking in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well the weather this past weekend really doesn’t get much better.  After a cold and wet winter, finally Mother Nature reminded us why we live here.  Sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60′s.  Of course, just as the weather turned mild, I get a cold and am feeeling a bit “under the weather” this weekend.  A little Nyquil before bed will hopefully get me a good nights sleep. 

Anyway, we stay mild to start the work week, but showers are possible for the morning and evening drive on Monday.  Looks like our taste of spring is going to be just be a tease, because the end of the week looks chilly once again.  The good news is that we are headed towards March and climatologically the normal highs continue to climb.  That first 80 degree day is on the horizon and before you know it we’ll be talking about the pollen and the humidity. 

Have a great week everyone !!

Brad

Looks like there is some buzz about water temperatures and some new data scientists are working on to help predict hurricane season.  Typically, water temperature and events like El Nino have a big play in the formation of tropical cyclones (hurricanes).  Robert Ehrlich of George Mason University has been looking into two important variables in this equation and has a great insight in this website link:  http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24839/?ref=rss

Right now, water temperatures are cooler than normal and it looks like the upcoming season might be slow to start.  Also a strong El Nino (warming of the Eastern Pacific) is underway and that interrupts vertical motion in tropical thunderstorms, which also keeps the number of hurricanes lower.

Bottom line, we’ll hear a lot about the upcoming hurricane season forecast, but it only takes one.  1992 was a quiet year, but one of the storm was Category Five Hurricane Andrew!  So, once again we talk about being prepared for that one storm that may come calling again here on the South Carolina coast.  We’ll keep you updated on LIVE 5 NEWS, LIVE 5 PLUS (our new channel on digital 5.2, Comcast 212, Time Warner, 811 and Knology 146) LIVE5NEWS.COM and our radio partners 101.7 CHUCK FM, STAR 99.7 FM, 95.9 FM Charleston’s Greatest Hits and WSPO.

I hope you can join us for tonight’s broadcasts starting at 4,5,6,7 & 11.

Well, it took a while, but I think our weather has finally turned the corner.  For the first time since December, the 7 day forecast DOES NOT have any freezing temperatures.  In fact, we have a few 70′s in the forecast for the upcoming week.  It has been a very cold winter across the Lowcountry and most of the U.S. for that matter.  In fact it was the coldest February since 1980 at the Charleston International Airport.  The average temperature was 45.9 compared to the normal February temperature of 50.7.  Almost 5 degrees colder than normal and in the the winter, that is significant – especially when it comes to that heating bill.  The good news is that we are seeing a change in the overall weather pattern as well.  We may still have a few chilly days heading into April, but the warm days will out number the cold ones.

Have a great Sunday everyone and enjoy the spring preview !!

Brad

Well, a little play on words.  You knew it was going to happen.  Not more than a month ago, we were still dealing with highs in the 50′s and lows below freezing.  Just like a snap of your fingers, we change the month and our weather changes just as fast.  It almost seems like we have skipped spring and gone right into summer.  Well, maybe its not that hot, but it sure feels good outside.  In fact, we tied the record high of 86 on Thursday. 

The pattern has done a complete 180 and now all the cold air is locked up in the western U.S. and that has allowed a ridge of high pressure to build across the southeast.  Temperatures have been above normal all week and there isn’t much change in store for next week.

Pollen has also been a factor in our weather lately.  It seems to be everywhere and a few showers would be very timely right now, but unfortunately, it doesn’t look like its going to happen.  That’s it for here at the Mighty 5.  We’ll keep you updated of course when weather happens, but until then have a great Easter Sunday !!  Sunrise by the way is at 7:04 am.

Brad

Here we are about a month into spring and its hard to believe that we could use some rain.  Outside of the showers and storms from last Thursday, we haven’t had a good soaking rain since the middle of March.  We are still about 2 and a half inches above normal in the rain gauge for the year, but a good day of rain wouldn’t be a bad thing at this point. 

The overall weather pattern has changed significantly since the winter.  We had a very active southern branch of the jet stream from about Christmas until the middle of March.  This kept a parade of storms tracking across the southeast just about every 3 or 4 days.  Now the active weather is confined to the west and the eastern half of the U.S. has been dry and mild. 

Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like any kind of change to this pattern for at least the next week.  That means mostly sunny days with temps in the 70′s and nights in the 50′s.  Big weekend on the way for the Lowcountry, so this good weather is in good timing.  Women’s professional tennis is at the Family Circle Cup at Daniel Island, the PGA is playing the Verizon Heritage Tournament at Harbour Town in Hilton Head, the Grits Festival is in St. George, and the Blue Angels will be flying around the Charleston Harbor. 

Hopefully we can get a few showers in here next week to get rid of the pollen.  Have a great weekend everyone and don’t forget the sunscreen !!

Brad

Thursday could not look any better for us across the Lowcountry!

TODAY: Lots of sunshine is on the way for the region thanks to a big ridge of warm high pressure moving in from the west. There may be a few high clouds around from time to time but it should not keep us from getting full sunshine. Highs today will have no problem getting back into the low 80′s. Humidity and dew points stay low so it will feel like perfect spring!

TONIGHT: Clear and calm condition will prevail again as lows fall back into the low 50s. Winds will be light out of the west from time to time. Morning time on Friday looks fantastic!

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: More sun, with a few clouds will return on Friday as highs again reach the lower 80s. We will also see a few more clouds late in the day. For Saturday, changing weather to our west will signal things to come for our neck of the woods. It will be another very warm day with highs in the mid 80s and a southwest wind. That will bring more moisture back into place which will set the stage for showers late in the evening.

SUNDAY STORMS: It looks like right now that a major severe weather outbreak will be unfolding over the deep south Saturday into Sunday. There is a chance that some strong tornadoes could develop over Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon and evening. Those storms will move toward the Atlantic coast on Sunday and it remains to be seen if they will still pose a severe weather threat for us on Sunday. We are watching it closely and will keep you up to date as things change.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Friday weather for us here in the Lowcountry really looks great. Sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s!!! You can’t beat that at all. That good weather will last into Saturday as well but will change by Sunday as storms roll in from the west. A major severe weather event is shaping up for the southeast today and tomorrow with a large tornado outbreak expected.

Here are the outlook maps for today through Sunday:

The major threat today and tomorrow will remain to our west, across the deep south states. This type of pattern supports all the key signals that support a major tornado event. Some of them will most likely be strong and long track that could do some major damage. The threat will shift east over the next few days and will approach the South Carolina coast by Sunday. The good news is that I don’t think right now we will see a major severe weather event here in our backyard. The line of storms should be moving through the region around mid-day to early afternoon Sunday. Right now the main threat looks to be damaging winds and some large hail. We cant rule out a few isolated tornadoes so it does bear watching.

To read the latest on the severe weather threat to our west check out the Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov

Enjoy your Friday and Saturday but just check in from time to time to make sure you are ready for what may come our way on Sunday. We will watch it for you.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

***Strong Storms Possible Sunday for the Lowcountry***

Clouds are moving across the Lowcountry this Saturday morning and some light showers are already showing up on the radar. I expect most of the day to stay dry but a few heavier showers or a storm or two may pop along the I-95 corridor by this afternoon. Highs today are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will also pick up today out of the southwest and will be gusty at times. There will be a large severe weather outbreak to our west today over the Tennessee Valley. The latest updated from the Storm Prediction Center have posted a rare and dangerous High Risk of severe storms and tornadoes over Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

There is the real threat of damaging, long-track tornadoes over much of that area today. It will be a day for folks there to stay very weather alert. The storms that develop there during the day will approach our area as we head into the night tonight and tomorrow.The forecast gets tricky late tonight as a strong storm system moves out of the Gulf States into our region. Thunderstorms could be developing by early Sunday morning and last through the day. All the factors are in place for some severe storms by mid-morning Sunday into the night. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are all possible. Highs will be near 80 and it will be breezy. The SPC has already issued a Slight Risk area for us tomorrow that may need to be upgraded as more data is fed into the forecast.

Make sure you are weather alert tonight and Sunday. Stay close to us here on TV and have a NOAA Weather Radio to get instant watches and warnings as they are issued.

Brad Miller will have the latest forecast this afternoon and evening on Live 5 News and we will post updates here as needed.

You can now get your forecast and more on your time. Watch our news re-broadcast and Live SuperDoppler HD on our new channel…Live 5 PLUS! You can find it on Comcast Channel 212, Knology Channel 146, Time Warner Channel 111, your HOME Telephone Cable listing and over the air using your antenna at channel 5.2 on your HDTV tuner.

Follow us on Twitter at : LIVE5WEATHER & on Facebook at: LIVE 5 NEWS

CHAD WATSON
Live 5 Meteorologist

Monday morning has started off interesting with flooding rainfall and thunder, but them main forecast concern behind the scenes is what the National Hurricane Center is watching several hundred miles to the southeast of the South Carolina coastline. An area of low pressure has been sitting out there over the weekend near the Bahamas and is forecast to drift back toward the SC & NC coastline over the next three days. Here is the latest graphical outlook from the NHC:

(Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

If the low does continue to develop, it could become a sub-tropical or tropical storm by Tuesday. If it gets a name it would be Alex, the first name on the 2010 list. Most of the forecast models do bring this to storm strength and move it toward the coastline. Starting this year, the NHC will begin issuing watches and warnings 48 hours out, instead of 12 hours, so there is a possibility that we could see tropical weather watches for parts of the coast as early as later today or early on Tuesday. We do not expect this to be a major problem at this time, just a good rain producer if we are lucky and it gets close enough to the coast. It could bring us some coastal flooding, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents on its approach so keep an eye on beach conditions if you plan on heading toward the coast. Of course if it does develop…you will get the info here first so stay with Live 5 Weather.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

NOAA, the parent department that oversees the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, will release their 2010 Hurricane Season outlook today at 10:00am in Washington. We are expecting them to forecast an above average season for the months ahead. The team at Colorado State University has already put out their forecast and it holds a lot of work ahead for the 2010 season.

Once we have the NOAA numbers in hand, we will have them on the main Live 5 website and a complete break down here in comparison with the CSU forecast.

Busy day ahead so I better get an extra pot of coffee on!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hurricane Floyd off the S.C. Coast

Could this be a sight we see from space this hurricane season?

It very well could be if the NOAA predictions for the 2010 season are right. Forecasters there released the numbers for the six months ahead and they look a bit ominous. Here is the breakdown:

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

Looking at the entire Atlantic basin, forecasters say that there is at least a 70% chance of this forecast verifying and if it does it could be one for the record books. NOAA Administrator, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, says, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record. The greater likelihood of storms brings and increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

To read the full season outlook from NOAA, click this link.

Forecasters at Colorado State University have already issued their preliminary forecast for the season and it is close, but somewhat lower than the numbers we see above. Their forecast breaks down below:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

One point to mention is that the CSU forecast was generated before we saw such a drastic decline in the current El Nino. With that feature rapidly weakening, it will allow for a more optimal setting for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin.

We can’t urge you enough to prepare now. Many people are new here to South Carolina’s coast and have never had to endure the aftermath of a hurricane. Most have forgotten how to prepare but one way or the other, we can’t sugar coat these numbers. The more storms we have, the bigger the bulls eye gets on our beaches.

Please….don’t think it won’t ever happen here. Ask those that went through Hugo and prepared for Floyd? It will happen here again, we know that. When is the big question.

You can count on Live 5 Weather to keep you informed, prepared and ready if tropical weather heads our way. Starting next Tuesday, June 1st check this blog every morning for the Tropical Update. We will take a look at whats out in the tropics and what we need to be watching. Add us to your RSS feeds and your daily reading list.

See you on the air at noon!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Welcome to the 2010 Hurricane Season…one that could, if forecasts are right, be one to remember. Starting today, we will keep the blog fresh with the latest out of the Tropics with our daily tropical update. Also look here for interesting links, stories and other tropical tid-bits as the season goes along. I plan to have this update done every morning by 10am at the latest (as long as the data gets in on time!!). Updates will be posted as things develop in real time, so check back often!

The good news is that on the first day of the season, there is not much to talk about. An old cold front over the central Atlantic has a few clouds stretching southwest over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Another flare up of storms has developed just to the east of the Yucatan but forecasts do not call for this area to develop.

Overall, tropical development is not expected today or tomorrow.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

As the second day of the 2010 Hurricane Center starts, the Atlantic Basin is all quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and beyond.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha which were just off the east coast of the Yucatan yesterday have fizzled away this morning. Looking across the rest of the waters, we find no other areas to keep an eye on this morning. June typically is a very quiet time in the tropics. Any early season systems that do develop usually develop in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Since the mid 1990′s there have only been a hand full of June Gulf systems. The open Atlantic waters are too cool to support development until late July and August. We always keep an eye on old frontal boundaries that push off the southeast coast in June and early July. They are typically to blame for tropical systems that spin up as they fade away over the northern Gulf and southeast coastal waters.

Looking at our long term forecast models, none of them show signs of any development for at least the next 10 days or so. This is good news, so take the time to get prepared and make sure you have your home or office hurricane kit ready for the upcoming season.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thursday still shows things nice and quiet in the Tropical Atlantic Basin:

All of our tropical forecast models show that there are no areas to watch for development for the next few days so rest easy as we head into the last day of the week and the upcoming, hot weekend! The Atlantic typically is quiet in June, especially at the start of the season.

Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University updated their 2010 tropical forecast yesterday and it also shows and uptick in the expected storms this season. Here is how their new forecast breaks down:

June 2, 2010 Update:

• 18 Named Storms
• 10 Hurricanes
• 5 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

The last update issued earlier this year looked like this:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

They have also increased the percentages and risks of a major hurricane strike on the United States coastline. The new numbers are concerning:

• 76% chance of a land-falling major hurricane along the U.S Gulf & East Coast.
• 51% chance for a major storm strike on the East Coast alone
• 50% chance of a Cat. 3 or higher storm making landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coastline

Click here to read the full report from Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach (PDF Format)

So, as we can see, all the numbers keep going up but we must remind everyone that the overall skill level in long term hurricane forecasting is still prone to large errors as we have seen in years past, just look at 2009. The main thing that these numbers are designed to do is spur you into thinking “am I ready”. We all have to prepare year to year. Whether it is an active season or not, all it takes is just one storm to make it a devastating season here in the Lowcountry.

Be sure and visit our “Hurricane Center” to get the info you need on where to go, what to do and what to expect if a storm heads our way this year.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The tropics are quiet and calm on this Friday morning as we end the first week of the 2010 Hurricane Season. The forecast models continue to show no development over the next few days so enjoy the weekend.

Our 2010 Hurricane Survival Guides are out and now available at our Live 5 Studios on Charlie Hall Blvd – West Ashley, SCE&G, all area Harris Teeter stores and Heritage Trust Federal Credit Union branches. They are free so stop in and pick up a few of these important booklets. They are packed with storm tips, evacuation routes and more on what you need to know this year if a storm comes to our coastline.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Hope you all have had a great weekend across the Lowcountry….it sure has been a hot one and it looks like this afternoon is going to be just as much of a scorcher!

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

The tropics are all still quiet and we dont expect any development over the next few days so sit back, relax and stay cool as we head into Sunday afternoon. We may see a few strong pop up storms later this afternoon so keep a close eye or ear on the sky and we will let you know if things do develop.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The week starts again on the quiet side as the forecast for the tropics remains calm. The National Hurricane Center is not forecasting any development over the next few days.

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

All of our tropical forecast models still point at a quiet week ahead. This is typical during June, which is usually one of the least active months in the tropics. The longer it stays that way the better!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wednesday dawns with another quiet view over the beaches into the Atlantic. All the forecast models are quiet:

Live 5 Tropical Outlook

June is shaping up just as climatology would have it, being a very inactive time for tropical weather across the Atlantic Basin. All of our reliable tropical long range models keep things nice and quiet for the next 7-10 days. That may change, but for now, enjoy the calm waters. Take this time to make sure that you are prepared!

Our 2010 Live 5 Hurricane Survival Guides are out and are available across the Lowcountry. Pick one up today at Harris Teeter, SCE&G, Heritage Trust Federal Credit Union and our Live 5 Studios. They are free and have plenty of great information on what to be ready for this hurricane season.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

The heat and humidity are building, indicating that summertime has arrived here in the Lowcountry. Dangerous heat index values are on the map through next week and its the hottest that we have seen since last August so get ready!

Live 5 Extended Forecast

You can see on the 7 Day that the mid 90s will last at least through Tuesday. With dew points in the low 70s, that will drive the humidity very high. All that combines together to create heat index values in the low 100 degree range. As the temps go up and the humidity rises, the toll the heat takes on your body increases exponentially.

Courtesy: National Weather Service

Do what you can to stay cool today and this weekend. Drink plenty of water, take some breaks in the A/C or at least in the shade and mainly, don’t over do it! Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are serious and can strike very easy in this kind of heat to listen to your body and take breaks as you need them.

TROPICS: In the Atlantic Basin, things remain quiet and like days past, all of our tropical forecast models show no development for the next few days so we can sit back and relax and stay cool!

Live 5 Tropical Outlook

Take it easy and we will see you here over the weekend!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Courtesy NOAA/NHC

The first tropical depression of the season may be forming in the eastern Atlantic.  While its not unheard of, this area of the Atlantic usually doesn’t get going until August.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.  We will continue to monitor and let you know as soon as we get more information from the Hurricane Center.

Brad Miller

Live 5 Meteorologist

INVEST 92L in the east-central Atlantic Ocean has continued to show increasing signs of development over the past 12 hours and could wind up becoming the first Tropical Depression of the 2010 season either late tonight or on Tuesday. Morning satellite photos from NOAA & the National Hurricane Center show an expansive area of thunderstorms north of what appears to be the loosely defined center. Several satellite passes recently have shown an open circulation but last nights pass did show a closed circulation that was much broader than was found this morning. 92L has finally moved north of the 10° N latitude line and can now start to tap into the rotation of the earth more to help it get some spin. This has started to be seen in the latest pictures as upper level outflow is visible to the north and northwest of the weak center. The disturbance is embedded in very humid air so there is no problem with dry air intrusion or Saharan dust to disrupt it if it does continue to slowly strengthen.

Courtesy: NOAA/NHC

92L is in a position that really is not supportive of tropical cyclone development. Since modern development of satellite only one tropical system has developed in this part of the Atlantic and that was back in 1979, when Tropical Storm Ana developed in roughly the same area and tracked into the Lesser Antillies. The bets that this one will become the second eastern Atlantic June system this morning look pretty high, in fact, the National Hurricane Center agrees and they put the risk of development at a high level over 60% in the next 48 hours.

Courtesy: NHC/NOAA

So what if it does develop? Where does it go and how strong will it get? Looking at the latest guidance there is nothing to turn the storm from moving on to the west-northwest. As it approaches the Caribbean, it will begin to encounter some higher levels of wind shear aloft which could disrupt the strengthening process or even tear the system apart. This is really the only factor to limit intensification. The water in the central Atlantic is exceptionally warm right now. It is not even officially summer, but water temps near 92L are already at or over the peak we saw them reach in mid-season 2009.

Courtesy: SFWMD

The forecast path for 92L, if it develops, looks to be in the general direction of the Windward Islands in the Lesser Antilles. This is all pure speculation at this point and the forecast models above are based on a storm that does develop and survives the increasing wind shear by Wednesday. Either way, I think that this will become a depression by Tuesday late day and should have time to become Tropical Storm Alex. Time will tell as we say in the tropics, because there, expect the unexpected!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Looks like our tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is not going to be able to hold on after all. Yesterday it looked to be on the path to depression or storm status…however this morning it will be lucky if the surface circulation can hang on the next 24 hours.

Courtesy: Weather Underground/wunderground.com

The image above from a morning visible satellite pass shows that the circulation of 92L looks fairly ragged. There is a lot of dry air to the west of the system this is being wrapped into the mid levels. This dry air will disrupt the possible development. The system will also be moving into an area with very high wind shear aloft which will act to further disrupt the spin, leaving 92L most likely a weak tropical wave by Wednesday.

All of our reliable tropical forecast models show no other areas of development over the week ahead. As we approach the end of June into July the season should begin to pick up…however the longer it waits, the better!

Stay cool the best you can in this excessive heat wave we have outside!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist