Aug 30 2010
Hurricane Earl Getting Stonger…
Hurricane Earl continues to strengthen as it moves through the Lesser Antilles this morning and is on it’s way to becoming a Major Hurricane.
Earl has the classic appearance of a very well developed hurricane with an eye visible every now and then on satellite and microwave imagery. Wind shear has finally relaxed over the northeast quadrant of the storm and it is now showing improving upper level outflow in all regions. Earl has been moving to the west for most of the morning with a slight jog to the north of west in the past few images. The overall track guidance still supports a more northwestward turn on Tuesday as the storm moves around the western edge of the Atlantic sub-tropical high and into a weakness left behind by Danielle. This motion should bring the hurricane to the east of the Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The water ahead of Earl is extremely warm and the shear is forecast to be very low so this would support Earl entering a phase of rapid intensification. Current intensity guidance brings Earl to Category 4 status by mid-week. As the hurricane approaches the U.S. coastline on Wednesday and Thursday, a developing trough of low pressure over the central U.S. should begin to exert enough force on Earl to turn it more to the north, keeping it from making a east coast landfall. There are still some questions on how the long term track will play out, as the morning models have shown a continuing trend of moving the track further west with each run. The strength and timing of the trough over the central part of the country will be key as to when and how much Earl turns later in the week. Once the turn occurs, Earl should parallel the mid-Atlantic coast northward to New England.
Large surf and rip currents will be common along the East Coast from Northern Florida to Maine this week. The swells here in the Lowcountry will lead to some beach erosion and dangerous conditions on the coastal waters. Keep an eye on the latest marine forecast and statements.
Now is also a great time to review your hurricane safety plan and make sure you have all the items you need and know what to do in the off chance that Earl makes a move further to the west.
More on the tropics as needed!
Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

















































