Well, we’ve been looking for rain across Florida and Georgia for the last year or so.  Very dry there and an extreme drought in some places.  Fay will be the king maker when it comes to that.  Look for lots of rain, up to 15-20 inches in Florida and parts of Southeast Georgia because of the slow movement of Fay.  The two day total for Melbourne so far is 13.5″! Our rainfall totals will be around 2-3, but perhaps higher depending on the speed and on shore flow.  We might see higher amounts along the coastline.

Winds will stay up over the next two to three days as Fay moves west into Florida, the pressure difference with the big, blocking high to the north will keep it breezy and at times, gusty especially along the coast.

Looks like such a slow movement will keep the chance of rain here for the next few days and into the weekend.  Look for Fay to weaken and diminish the moist flow after Saturday and Sunday.

Busy day again here in the Storm Center.  Morning commute with the kids back to school went well as that alarm went off oh so early!  Hope your days are going well.

Scott and I hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast as we bring you the latest on Fay.

Bill

Well, It’s a tough call with Fay because of the trough to the north lifting out, the timing of a ridge building back and where that storm will turn west after the high builds in.  Here’s a quick rundown I posted on our regular site:

Watching Tropical Storm Fay over South Florida this evening and tonight while looking at the future impacts of the storm here in the Lowcountry.  Fay should move off the coast of Florida during the early morning hours of Wednesday.  This will put the storm back over the ocean and we could see some slow strengthening during that period.  Current thinking takes Fay back to the coast near Brunswick or Jacksonville on Thursday.  If this track verifies, we would be seeing a fair amount of rainfall as she heads inland to our south.  Any further north for landfall would change the amount of rain and type of impact here.  Right now look for a wet Wed, Thu and Fri with gusty winds and isolated tornadoes within those bands.  Stay informed and continue to monitor the progression of Fay.

Now the radar shows Fay moving north/northeast and the hurricane center is being rather conservative on the estimates of restrengthening.  We’ll just have to see how long the storm will stay over the water and the amount of shear and a slight dry air entrainment along the southern semicircle. 

Bottom line is that we could see a lot of rain from the storm if it heads towards Brunswick or Jacksonville for a second landfall.  The more up the coast and later that turn takes, the more impact for us.  That would mean more rain and higher winds with the potential of some storm surge if the center passes less than 100 miles to our south.

So, we’ll have new info during the 5 p.m. broadcasts and another new package from the hurricane center at 11. 

All of our meteorologists have been here watching this thing.  I came in at 11 a.m. to see the latest and we all talked about how well the structure of the storm is doing over “land.”  Land is relative in South Florida because of the amount of swamp and wetlands which will slow any rapid weakening which would be more common over hard landmass.  We are fascinated with this forecast and will continue to refine it.

During this time we get many calls and questions which we try to answer.  The biggest is where it’s going and that’s still tough at this hour.

Had a busy day getting the storm tracker ready to deploy if needed.   Also watching “Invest 94L” which is half way across the Atlantic and not doing much at the moment, we’ll just have to see if it can get some moisture involved with it’s broad circulation.

Took my father for lunch and enjoyed a fair amount of sunshine.  Lunch was good and we’re getting ready for the kids to start back to school.  Yes, lookout Lowcountry as I hit the commute again in the morning on the way to school!  Weird sleeping habits when the kids are in school.  Janet does the radio show and goes to work at 4:30 a.m.  I get the kids up at six and bring them to school for 8.  But I go to bed around 1:30 a.m. depending on when I get home from the late broadcasts.  So, I’ll sleep again at 8:15 a.m. or so for a few hours.  Are you following along so far?  Crazy schedule but it seems to work out. 

We’ll keep you posted on all of this and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcasts.  Have a great night!

Bill

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida this morning around 5:00am at Cape Romano, south of Naples with winds at 60 mph. This was the second landfall technically, since she made her first crossing onto land in the Florida Keys on Monday afternoon. Since making landfall the radar representation as well as the satellite views have continued to show a well formed center of circulation.

(Infrared Satellite Image - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The cloud shield from Fay is spreading north as far as Jacksonville this morning and the rain bands are as far north as Daytona Beach as of 8:45am at post time. Some recent observations have shown sustained winds as high as 35 mph near and east of the center with several gusts well into the high end of the tropical storm spectrum. Fay did not have enough time over water to reach hurricane strength but was close according to the Hurricane Hunters who did record SFMR winds over 70 mph before landfall. The storm will continue to dump copious amounts of rain on the Sunshine State today with the threat of tornadoes as well. There have already been dozens of warnings issued and this is typical with a well developed, landfalling tropical system.

THE FORECAST …. (FLIP A QUARTER!)

Fay has been giving us fits on her forecast not really in strength but her path. That uncertainty continues this morning between many of the forecast models but there is some good news. They are more in agreement on a short term track across central Florida to a point near Cape Canaveral or just offshore in roughly 12-18 hours.

(Tropcial Forecast Models - T.S. FAY - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The plots above look like spaghetti after I get out of the kitchen..but you can see the “general” agreement in a point near northeast Florida over the next day or so. From there things get a bit sketchy. A strong blocking ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in over the New England states later in the week. This is what is expected to bend Fay back to the west. I feel that our exposure to tropical weather from Fay depends on how quickly she moves northeast and then how fast the ridge is to build in. If the ridge is delayed at all in development, Fay will have some extra time to sit over the coastal waters and regain a little strength. Several models bring Fay back inland near the Florida/Georgia state line then take it westward through southern GA and AL. Some take it back over the Florida peninsula, into the Gulf and move it toward the Mississippi Coast next week! You get the idea that its going to turn left but we just don’t know when and where.

(NHC Forecast - TS FAY - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

The NHC/TPC forecast above shows a westward bend starting on Thursday morning. That looks reasonable but is all key on high pressure to our north. This track would keep any significant tropical weather to our south (fingers crossed). It is interesting to note though that the HPC rainfall forecast for the next 5 days has a total between 11-15 inches of rain here with a maxim of 25″ just offshore.

THE BOTTOM LINE….FOR NOW:

Watch for weather to slowly cloud up here late tonight and during the morning on Wednesday as the bands of rain from Fay move further north toward the region. If Fay does not turn as forecast, winds and squally weather will build late on Wednesday overnight into Thursday. Be prepared now for lots of rain ahead for the rest of the week. Flooding may be an issue if the HPC QPF guidance is correct.

More to come later as updates are available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wow…what a crazy couple of days with computer models flip flopping back and forth and Fay not wanting any of it!

 New guidance shows a weakening tropical storm moving north towards Jacksonville FLA then taking a sharp turn left towards Brunswick and on to Atlanta! 

Looks like all the models build the ridge to the north and east of Fay rather strongly and this makes sense given the current and short term synoptic changes w/ the trough that will be pulling out as another moves east.

This storm is trying to get better organized, but does not have much time and the conditions are only marginal for strengthening with some dry air entraining on the west side and some shear. 

Bottom line is that we’re looking at on and off rain showers into Wed/Thu & Fri with some heavy rains possible and gusty winds.  We could see some isolated tornadoes as we remain to the north and east of the center.

 We’ll keep you posted for sure.  Busy here in the Storm Center.  All of us are watching every model run and seeing what the computers are thinking then looking at the actual model consistency.

We’ll have new information at 11 and hope you join us for tonight’s broadcast.

Bill

After a brief move across west-central Cuba overnight, Tropical Storm Fay is starting to make her move off the northern coast of the island into the Florida Straights. The latest hurricane hunter reports indicate that the winds are starting to come up slightly and as of the 8:00 AM EDT advisory were up to 60mph from 50mph at 5am this morning. Fay continues to look a bit lop-sided on the satellite pics this morning. All of the deep convection is displaced to the east and northeast of the center thanks to dry air and a bit of upper level shear to the west of the storm. Now that the center is moving back over open, warm water a brief period will open up for Fay to strengthen. With upper level conditions still favorable, it is likely that Fay will become a Category 1 Hurricane before making landfall on the Florida west coast sometime tomorrow.

(GOES INFRARED SATELLITE - IMAGE COURTESY: NOAA/NHC)

THE TRACK FORECAST:

With the western side weaker, I don’t anticipate any rapid intensification like we saw with Hurricane Charley back in 2004. However, if Fay can rebuild a solid internal core, the intensity would gradually begin to build as the eyewall became more established. Even if Fay remains a moderate to strong tropical storm, she is going to dump lots of heavy rain on South Florida over the next 36 hours. Hurricane watches along with Tropical Storm watches/warning are already posted there and I anticipate those will slowly be moved northward as the storm wobbles NNW.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots- Image Courtes: SFWMD)

The forecast track has come into somewhat better alignment this morning, tightly clustered on a landfall somewhere near or south of the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, very near where Charley made landfall in Port Charlotte, Fl back in 2004. If Fay can stay over the warm waters and off the coast, she may reach Landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but as she moves inland it won’t take long before she falls back to a Tropical Storm.

LOWCOUNTRY IMPACTS: 

The exact impacts here on our stretch of the coast is still unwritten…until we see exactly where Fay makes landfall and the forecast track inland. If you look at the NHC official track, it brings the center of T.S. Fay just west of the Lowcountry on Thursday. This would put us on the eastern side of the storm, and open up the possibility of isolated severe weather with tornadoes and heavy rain the biggest threat. I have seen a bit more of an eastward trend in the model runs this morning and that will have to be watched closely.

(NHC Official Forecast Track - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

More to come after the late morning model runs are in house….just get ready for rain and wind mid to late week.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Fay did survive the passage over the Dominican Republic and since it’s time over water the past 12+ hours, it has shown some signs of regeneration but the process is looking slow. Fay may not have time to become a Hurricane before moving over Cuba later this evening and tonight.
(Visible Satellite - GOES FLOATER - Image Courtesy: NOAA/NHC)

The center of Fay was located near the Gulf of Ana Maria as of the 11am advisory package and was moving slowly northwest toward the southern coast of Cuba. The circulation is showing signs on the visible pics of trying to become better organized but is now fighting some dry air off to the west of the storm. The disrupted core appears to have ingested some of that drier air and that has let to the heaviest rain displaced to the right of the COC (center of circulation). Fay still has the chance to intensify quickly to near hurricane strength before making landfall on Cuba as it is over very warm waters.

(Tropical Forecast Model Plots - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

The forecast model plots are all still split to the left and right this morning, however the more reliable models are shifted again slightly to the east of the previous runs and the target for initial landfall in the U.S. is the southernmost Florida Keys, near Key West and then on up the west coast of the peninsula between Ft. Myers and the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The intensity plots along with the official forecast from the NHC does make Fay a hurricane before landfall on the western Florida Gulf Coast, most likely as a Category 1 storm, but there is the chance of a much stronger hurricane as the Gulf waters are very warm. Fay has to re-develop a solid inner core in order to continue strengthening. There is some evidence of this in the latest data but until Fay moves away from Cuba, the hurricane hunters can’t get a good read on the internal structure.

The question for the lowcountry down the road is what does Fay bring us? There are some hints that we may have to deal with a possible third landfall on the South Carolina coast as fay re-emerges over the extreme western Atlantic, near Jacksonville and moves northeast toward the South/North Carolina coastline. Depending on the amount of weakening while over Florida, we could still see tropical storm or hurricane conditions later next week. The plots from the NHC keep the storm to our west inland over the Savannah river as a tropical storm, which would give us a a fairly significant severe weather threat Tuesday - Thursday. This is all based on model forecast trends. Until Fay moves inland and time progresses over the next few days we will not have a solid hold on the potential threats here.

(Official NHC Forecast - Image Courtesy: National Hurricane Center)

The NHC has Fay just west of Beaufort on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm. This bears close watching as a bend slightly to the east would mean that tropical storm or hurricane watches/warnings would be necessary in the days ahead for the region. Hurricane Watches are already posted for the Florida Keys northward up the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of Florida.

Thats the latest in a quiclk glance here on Sunday morning. If things change I will post again later this evening. Otherwise Join Brad Miller and Chief Meteorologist Bill Walsh on the evening broadcasts tonight. I will have the latest for you on Monday morning starting at 5AM.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Good Saturday Morning…will do a quick update here and have more after the 12Z models are all in house.

All eyes are still on Fay this morning and she is holding her own over the high mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The satellite view shows a large convective mass south of the somewhat uncertain COC (center of circulation).

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NASA/MSFC)

As we typically see on systems as they pass over the islands, the internal structure is a bit disrupted with the heaviest storms displaced to the north or south over the warmer and smoother waters. The hurricane hunters have reported a hard time finding the exact center of the storm as they flew around the entire island. I would not be suprised to see the center migrate or try and reform just off the south coast of Haiti as it moves westward. The overall storm structure looks very well defined this morning with upper level outflow established on all sides. There is evidence of on and off spiraling bands on radar. The big questions remain…how does Fay interact with her continued passage over land then sea then land again, how much can she strengthen while over the water and how does the overall synoptic setup in the future impact her path?

Those are all questions lots of forecasters are working to answer. I will say this…it looks better for us that we will not be in a position for a “direct hit” as it appeared yesterday as all the dynamical tropical models have moved the path to the west, along with the NHC official forecast track. But as we alyways say, you cant focus on the “black line”. The entire “forecast cone” is what to look for and yes, we still fall in that cone. Here is the latest look at the model data as of 9:00am EDT:

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: SFWMD)

As you can see the guidance package is tightly clustered on a track along the southwest coast of Cuba in to the Florida Straits and then paralleling the west coast of Florida with a landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida, near St. Marks. With that being said, look at the spread though…from south of Mobile Bay east to Wilmington, N.C. so you see why we cant hang out hat on any point just yet. The further west Fay moves over the Caribbean before her northward turn, the more the track will move to the west. If she turns north sooner, the track will bend bak a bit more to the east. The intensity forecast is just as tricky. If Fay can remain somewhat consolidated as it exits the coast of Haiti, it will have a good environment for fairly quick strengthening. There is just a question on how quickly she can take advantage of the warm waters before moving over the southeast coast of Cuba. The NHC forecast makes her a hurricane once she brushes back over the Gulf of Ana Maria (water just off the south central coast of Cuba). She is forecast to maintain hurricane strength across western Cuba and strengthen as she moves up the Florida coast. If Fay can tap the heat potential in the water and quickly get her act together, there is a reasonable possibility that she could reach Category 2 status as she approaches the Sunshine State. (Let us note though that a more westward track over the waters south of Cuba would allow explosive development as the oceanic heat content there is very impressive and could lead to rapid intensification).

It’s all still really a wait and see game. I don’t want folks here in the Lowcountry to dismiss the storm totally just yet. With a landfall to our south and west on the Gulf Coast, we still have a good chance of getting some heavy rain and strong storms as the center moves inland. So…stay with us here on the Blog..and on Live 5 News.com and we will have the latest updates through the weekend.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Okay….busy in the Storm Center today.

 Bottom line on FAY….we need to watch it.  Current track and NHC thinking is up the west coast of Florida. 

This all comes down to timing.  The trough moving off the east coast will help turn the storm north, then a ridge builds as it exits, perhaps forcing the storm more west at the end of the period.

The models are hinting a tad more left of track this evening, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out.  A couple bring it along the east coast of Florida and another towards New Orleans!  So, we just need to look at all the runs and see where the consensus is. 

If the storm would be more right of track in time, that could be a problem for us seeing that it would be over water and would intensify, perhaps into a category III or IV.  If it takes the current forecast track, the land mass interaction will keep it at bay, perhaps a tropical storm for its life.  The mountians of the Dominican Republic and Cuba will be key to keeping this from becoming a major hurricane.

Again, lots of uncertainties.  We have to watch this storm carefully and will do so here all weekend and into next week.

Hope you have a great weekend.  We’ll keep you posted on the storm.

Bill

I will say that I am very suprised that the Hurricane Hunters did not find a closed surface circulation yesterday when they flew through 92L. Both the Air Force KC-130W and the NOAA high altitude jet was in the system yesterday at the same time, looking and searching. They found a well developed low pressure center that just had not made it to the surface yet. This morning, the satellite pictures show a developing system.

(Infrared Satellite - Image Courtesy: NOAA/CIRA)

The morning satellite pictures show a good looking, fairly symmetrical system with upper level outflow established to the north, east and south. A burst of heavy storms this morning was evident right over San Juan both on satellite and Puerto Rico radar images. Radar does show lots of heavy rain and indications of spiraling bands developing to the northeast of the island. The center of the mid level circulation appears to be just off the northern coast of the island with the heaviest storms displaced to the south of the center. There is lots of data to look at now with this system, all with just about any outcome you want so lets look at what we see as the most viable solution…

THE FORECAST PATH:

All the tropical forecast models continue to push the idea of a general north of west track over the next 50 hours or so.

(Tropical Forecast Models - Image Courtesy: Weather Underground)

As the storm continues to the west-northwest it should start it’s poleward turn in response to a mid-level trough of low pressure that is expected to be over the central U.S. at the first of next week. There is some debate on wheteher the trough will be strong enough to pull it off the coast at this point. As you can see from the model plots, this is a troubling path for the Bahamas, the Florida east coast as well as Georgia and South Carolina. There are too many varying model solutions out there now to make a definitive call, but we must watch this closely. If the system stay somewhat disorganized today, it may move more westward over the island of Hispanola, which would weaken the system. If it moves more over the open waters offshore, look for a growing system. With that being said, lets look at the intensity forecast.

HOW STRONG?

The look of 92L on the satellite already shows a system getting better and better organized by the hour. the upper level shear is low, less than 10 knots and it should stay that way over the next five days or so. An upper level anticyclone (high pressure) is building over the region and that will help vent the upper levels of the storm, making the upper level conditions about perfect for intensification. In the lower levels, as soon as the low level circulation can close off the growth should really begin. The storm is still surrounded by some drier air, but it is deep enough now that it has moistened the atmosphere enough that it should not feel any effects from the Saharan Air Layer.

(Tropical Intensity Forecast - Image Courtesy: Colorado State University)

The tropical intensity models all take the system just about directly to a tropical storm and then show a gradual increase to a Category 1 storm. As the system approaches the Bahamas toward the end of the weekend the SHIPS and GFDL both make it a Category 2 storm. With the warm water and low shear, it could be even stronger than forecast. Remember…there is much less accuracy in the fields of intensity forecasting so stay on top of the forecast day by day for the latest.

WHERE DOES IT GO?

Thats a question that I wish someone could answer for me! 92L is currently in a location that bears close watching as it could affect folks from the central Gulf Coast, around Florida to the coast of the Carolinas. My best guess this morning is that once the system can “officially” develop it continues west-northwest very near the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Cuba through Saturday. If the storm tracks over the islands, the high mountains could weaken or tear the system apart. If the center stays over water, look for a gradual increase in strength. The oceanic heat content in the water around the Bahamas is very high and this could lead to rapid intensification. There is a moderate chance of a strong Category 2 hurricane in the central Bahamas by the end of the weekend. Beyond that, it all depends on the upper level steering currents as to whether it stalls off the Florida coast, moves toward the Gulf of Mexico or makes a bee line toward the Carolinas. It must be noted that the GFDL has a Category 4 hurricane off the southern South Carolina coastline next Wednesday…just to reinforce the idea we have to be ready.
(GFDL Forecast - Click For Full Size Image - Image Courtesy: Florida State Univesity) 

The general consensus is that it’s a good time to keep tuned to the forecast. There may be no threat to us but the setup bears close watching…which we will do. Make sure that if you have a generator, it is working and you have all the necessary supples you need to protect your home if that becomes the case. Stay with us here on the Blog all weekend long as more and more data becomes available.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

We are busy in the Storm Center watching a developing tropical system near the Virgin Islands.

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force Reserve have been out there…actually two missions….and have not found a closed circulation; so the hurricane center decided not to upgrade it at this time.

I think that this has the potential to grow into a tropical storm and perhaps hurricane depending on the track and relation to the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba.  If it’s over the water or just hugs the coasts down there, we might see some development into a hurricane with the warm water temps, light shear and good outflow thanks to a ridge to the north of the system.

After that, the models differ, but we’ll have to keep an eye on it because of its proximity to the Southeast US coast.

We’ll keep you posted here and on the broadcasts tonight. 

Had a great opportunity to take the kids on a little boat ride today and lunch over at Shem Creek.  Met some great folks from SCE&G who work hard in storms to keep our lights on and to get the power back when it’s knocked out.

Well, busy tracking the tropics so we’ll make this short today. Stay tuned as we keep an eye on things in the tropics.

We’ll look for you on tonight’s broadcasts.

Bill